Christopher Merry is a Decision Scientist, data engineer, and founder of The Pascal Initiative, with more than 25 years of experience in technology, analytics, and data-driven problem-solving. Holding a master’s degree in Data Science, he combines expertise in engineering, sports analytics, and artificial intelligence to explore how people and organizations make better decisions. Through Pascal, he is advancing the practical application of decision science through research, education, and technology.
Articles
These research articles were written by Christopher Merry and published by Pascal Institute.
One Lean, One Coin Flip What two failed calls in Tampa Bay's win at Dallas can teach us about judging a decision before the result.
What the Turang Walk Traded What one intentional walk in NLCS Game 2 can teach us about the hidden cost of playing it safe.
Where Home Runs Come From What two seasons of Statcast contact points can teach us about the difference between power and hits.
When to Pull the Starter We priced 84,501 keep-or-pull moments from 2026 starts. Most were too close to call given our uncertainty about the players, and the league’s timing is consistent with a bullpen cost of roughly 0.05 to 0.15 points of win probability per batter.
What the Market Knew Two forecasts of the 2026 World Series built from AnalytIQ team ratings, frozen before the postseason, and tested against the betting market.
Not All Field Goals Weigh the Same What a fourth-and-one decision can teach us about Decision Science in business: probability alone does not decide whether an opportunity is worth pursuing. What success buys does.
Pricing an ABS Challenge Pascal Institute introduces Challenge Threshold Standard 1 (CT-S1), a named expected-run reference for the break-even point of an ABS challenge, and the Decision Opportunity Score that restates it.
One in Five: Inside the ABS Recognition Gap A Pascal Institute season-scale audit of what happens after an estimated incorrect called strike when a batter has a legal ABS challenge available.
The Challenge Threshold: What Makes a Hitter Ask ABS? Pascal Institute examines 96,486 legal called-strike challenge opportunities to understand how pitch location, count, game context, and challenge inventory shape hitter decisions.
What Is a Challenge Worth? Pascal Institute examines the immediate value of an MLB ABS challenge, the cost of preserving it, and why the outcome that follows cannot measure the quality of the decision.
Who Sees the Miss? Pascal Institute examines whether historical hitter recognition behavior improves prediction of future ABS challenges after opportunity difficulty is accounted for.
Pascal Institute publishes team ratings and game forecasts, with every forecast recorded before the game and scored after it. The Pascal team ratings show the current forecasts, and the Track Record shows how they have performed.
Work with Pascal
Pascal Advisory, the consulting practice of the Pascal Initiative, applies the same methods for organizations: building and validating forecasting and rating systems, and analyzing decisions made under uncertainty. Read about Pascal Advisory, see how the work applies in the case studies, or discuss a project.
