Jacksonville is No. 1 in the Pascal Institute NFL Power Rankings after a 42-7 win over Indianapolis, and San Francisco, idle this week, falls to No. 2. The Jaguars (5-2) rate 117.9 after a 3.9-point gain, and the 49ers (6-1) rate 114.6. The Rams move up to No. 3 and Buffalo to No. 4, while Seattle falls from No. 3 to No. 6 after a 34-17 home loss to Chicago.
Favorites won 10 of 14 games, against about 8.8 expected, and final margins landed an average of 10.7 points from our expectations. The biggest upset was Chicago's win at Seattle as a 38% underdog. Several favorites won far more easily than we expected: Jacksonville by 26.5 points more, Buffalo by 22.6 in a 36-10 win over Baltimore, and Pittsburgh by 17.9. The Week 8 expectations were published late, after the games, so this scorecard is a retrospective check; see the note under References.
The top six are separated by 9.71 rating points, about 3.51 points of expected margin on a neutral field. This week No. 9 Green Bay visits No. 7 New England, No. 1 Jacksonville opens the week at No. 17 Baltimore on Thursday night, and No. 13 Cincinnati and No. 18 Atlanta meet in Madrid. Pittsburgh and Tennessee are idle.
Last Week's Expectations, Scored
Favorites won 10 of 14 games, against about 8.8 expected from the win probabilities we published. Final margins landed an average of 10.7 points from our expectations, compared with the rating's typical error of 13.0 points. The biggest upset was Chicago Bears over Seattle Seahawks, which we had given a 38% chance.
| Game | Favorite | Expected margin (pts) | Result | Favorite won? | Miss (pts) | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No. 19 Carolina Panthers at No. 8 Green Bay Packers | Green Bay Packers | 4.4 | Green Bay Packers 27-19 | Yes | +3.6 | |
| No. 14 Baltimore Ravens at No. 6 Buffalo Bills | Buffalo Bills | 3.4 | Buffalo Bills 36-10 | Yes | +22.6 | |
| No. 32 Tennessee Titans at No. 10 Cincinnati Bengals | Cincinnati Bengals | 10.3 | Cincinnati Bengals 43-36 | Yes | -3.3 | |
| No. 29 Arizona Cardinals at No. 22 Dallas Cowboys | Dallas Cowboys | 3.5 | Arizona Cardinals 33-30 | No | -6.5 | |
| No. 12 Minnesota Vikings at No. 16 Detroit Lions | Detroit Lions | 0.8 | Detroit Lions 19-15 | Yes | +3.2 | |
| No. 21 Indianapolis Colts at No. 2 Jacksonville Jaguars | Jacksonville Jaguars | 8.5 | Jacksonville Jaguars 42-7 | Yes | +26.5 | |
| No. 28 Las Vegas Raiders at No. 24 New York Jets | New York Jets | 2.7 | Las Vegas Raiders 38-33 | No | -7.7 | |
| No. 20 Cleveland Browns at No. 18 Pittsburgh Steelers | Pittsburgh Steelers | 3.1 | Pittsburgh Steelers 27-6 | Yes | +17.9 | |
| No. 17 Atlanta Falcons at No. 15 Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 2.7 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16-0 | Yes | +13.3 | |
| No. 25 Los Angeles Chargers at No. 4 Los Angeles Rams | Los Angeles Rams | 8.8 | Los Angeles Rams 24-9 | Yes | +6.2 | |
| No. 5 Kansas City Chiefs at No. 11 Denver Broncos | Kansas City Chiefs | 0.1 | Denver Broncos 28-24 | No | -4.1 | |
| No. 7 New England Patriots at No. 30 Miami Dolphins | New England Patriots | 5.2 | New England Patriots 24-19 | Yes | -0.2 | |
| No. 31 Philadelphia Eagles at No. 26 Washington Commanders | Washington Commanders | 2.8 | Washington Commanders 27-10 | Yes | +14.2 | |
| No. 9 Chicago Bears at No. 3 Seattle Seahawks | Seattle Seahawks | 3.9 | Chicago Bears 34-17 | No | -20.9 |
Expected margins are the locked values from the Week 8 edition, from the favorite's view, including home field. Miss is the actual margin minus the expected margin; positive means the favorite did better than expected.
The Rankings After Week 8
| Trend | Rank | Last week | Team | Record | Rating | Change | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ | 1 | 2 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 5-2 | 117.9 | +3.9 | |
| ▼ | 2 | 1 | San Francisco 49ers | 6-1 | 114.6 | -0.2 | |
| ▲ | 3 | 4 | Los Angeles Rams | 4-4 | 112.5 | +1.9 | |
| ▲ | 4 | 6 | Buffalo Bills | 6-1 | 111.2 | +4.1 | |
| ● | 5 | 5 | Kansas City Chiefs | 5-2 | 108.7 | -0.6 | |
| ▼ | 6 | 3 | Seattle Seahawks | 4-4 | 108.2 | -3.1 | |
| ● | 7 | 7 | New England Patriots | 5-3 | 107.8 | +1.1 | |
| ▲ | 8 | 9 | Chicago Bears | 6-2 | 107.7 | +2.6 | |
| ▼ | 9 | 8 | Green Bay Packers | 5-3 | 106.6 | +1.4 | |
| ▲ | 10 | 15 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 3-5 | 104.7 | +2.3 | |
| ● | 11 | 11 | Denver Broncos | 6-2 | 104.3 | 0.0 | |
| ▲ | 12 | 13 | Houston Texans | 2-5 | 103.9 | +0.2 | |
| ▼ | 13 | 10 | Cincinnati Bengals | 5-2 | 103.7 | -0.9 | |
| ▼ | 14 | 12 | Minnesota Vikings | 6-1 | 103.4 | -0.4 | |
| ▲ | 15 | 16 | Detroit Lions | 5-2 | 102.3 | +1.0 | |
| ▲ | 16 | 18 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 6-2 | 101.5 | +2.5 | |
| ▼ | 17 | 14 | Baltimore Ravens | 4-4 | 97.7 | -4.8 | |
| ▼ | 18 | 17 | Atlanta Falcons | 3-5 | 97.0 | -2.5 | |
| ● | 19 | 19 | Carolina Panthers | 3-4 | 96.7 | -1.0 | |
| ▲ | 20 | 24 | New York Jets | 2-6 | 94.2 | +1.0 | |
| ▲ | 21 | 23 | New York Giants | 4-2-1 | 94.1 | +0.3 | |
| ● | 22 | 22 | Dallas Cowboys | 3-5 | 93.7 | -1.1 | |
| ▼ | 23 | 20 | Cleveland Browns | 5-3 | 92.9 | -2.4 | |
| ▲ | 24 | 28 | Las Vegas Raiders | 4-4 | 91.2 | +0.8 | |
| ▲ | 25 | 26 | Washington Commanders | 2-4-1 | 91.1 | +0.6 | |
| ▲ | 26 | 29 | Arizona Cardinals | 3-5 | 91.0 | +1.1 | |
| ▼ | 27 | 21 | Indianapolis Colts | 2-6 | 90.5 | -4.5 | |
| ▼ | 28 | 27 | New Orleans Saints | 2-5 | 90.1 | -0.3 | |
| ▼ | 29 | 25 | Los Angeles Chargers | 0-7 | 89.0 | -2.0 | |
| ● | 30 | 30 | Miami Dolphins | 1-6 | 86.9 | -0.6 | |
| ● | 31 | 31 | Philadelphia Eagles | 2-6 | 86.4 | -1.1 | |
| ● | 32 | 32 | Tennessee Titans | 1-7 | 81.7 | +1.0 |
Last week is the rank before Week 8 kicked off. Change is in rating points. Ties at one decimal are ordered by the unrounded rating. Team names link to the live NFL Team Ratings.
The rating is a forecast of strength, not a résumé, so a team can move up after a loss or down after a win. A team that did not play still moves when the teams it has already faced gain or lose rating.
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Who Moved and Why
Jacksonville Jaguars (▲ 2 to 1) and Indianapolis Colts (▼ 21 to 27). We expected Jacksonville to beat Indianapolis by 8.5 points. The Jaguars won 42-7, 26.5 points more, the widest miss of the week, and their rating rose 3.9 points to 117.9. The Colts' fell 4.5 points and they drop six spots to No. 27.
San Francisco 49ers (▼ 1 to 2). San Francisco was idle. Its rating slipped 0.2 points to 114.6, and Jacksonville's win moves the 49ers to No. 2.
Buffalo Bills (▲ 6 to 4) and Baltimore Ravens (▼ 14 to 17). Buffalo was a 3.4-point favorite at home and beat Baltimore 36-10. The Bills' rating rose 4.1 points, the largest gain of the week, and they move up two spots to No. 4. The Ravens' fell 4.8 points, the largest drop, and they fall three spots to No. 17.
Chicago Bears (▲ 9 to 8) and Seattle Seahawks (▼ 3 to 6). Seattle was a 3.9-point favorite at home on Monday night, with a 62% chance of winning. Chicago won 34-17, the biggest upset of the week. The Bears' rating rose 2.6 points and they move up one spot to No. 8; the Seahawks' fell 3.1 points and they drop three, to No. 6.
Los Angeles Rams (▲ 4 to 3) and Los Angeles Chargers (▼ 25 to 29). The Rams beat the Chargers 24-9, 6.2 points better than we expected, and move up one spot to No. 3. The Chargers, now 0-7, fall four spots to No. 29.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (▲ 15 to 10) and Atlanta Falcons (▼ 17 to 18). Tampa Bay beat Atlanta 16-0, 13.3 points better than we expected. The Buccaneers' rating rose 2.3 points and they climb five spots to No. 10, despite a 3-5 record. The Falcons fall one spot to No. 18.
Pittsburgh Steelers (▲ 18 to 16) and Cleveland Browns (▼ 20 to 23). Pittsburgh was a 3.1-point favorite at home and beat Cleveland 27-6. The Steelers move up two spots to No. 16, and the Browns fall three, to No. 23.
Washington Commanders (▲ 26 to 25) and Philadelphia Eagles (● 31). Washington beat Philadelphia 27-10 on Sunday night, 14.2 points better than we expected, and moves up one spot to No. 25. The Eagles stay No. 31.
Las Vegas Raiders (▲ 28 to 24) and New York Jets (▲ 24 to 20). The Jets were a 2.7-point favorite at home. Las Vegas won 38-33 and moves up four spots to No. 24. The Jets' rating still rose 1.0 point, and they also move up four, to No. 20.
Arizona Cardinals (▲ 29 to 26) and Dallas Cowboys (● 22). Arizona won 33-30 at Dallas as a 39% underdog and moves up three spots to No. 26. The Cowboys stay No. 22.
Cincinnati Bengals (▼ 10 to 13). We made Cincinnati a 10.3-point favorite against Tennessee. The Bengals won 43-36, 3.3 points short, and fall three spots to No. 13.
Week 9: What We Expect
Of the 32 teams, 30 play in 15 games and two are idle. Expected margins include 1.7 points of home field, and the favorite is the team expected to win after that adjustment. If the ratings are well calibrated, about 9.1 of the 15 favorites should win. Eight games are within 3 points and close to a toss-up. Home field flips two picks, each a home team the neutral-field rating had as a slight underdog: Indianapolis Colts over Dallas Cowboys, New Orleans Saints over Cleveland Browns.
| Day | Game | Favorite | Expected margin with home field (pts) | Neutral-field margin (pts) | Win probability | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu, Nov. 5 | No. 1 Jacksonville Jaguars at No. 17 Baltimore Ravens | Jacksonville Jaguars | 5.6 | 7.3 | 67% | |
| Sun, Nov. 8 | No. 13 Cincinnati Bengals vs. No. 18 Atlanta Falcons (neutral site) | Cincinnati Bengals | 2.4 | 2.4 | 57% | |
| Sun, Nov. 8 | No. 11 Denver Broncos at No. 19 Carolina Panthers | Denver Broncos | 1.0 | 2.7 | 53% | |
| Sun, Nov. 8 | No. 22 Dallas Cowboys at No. 27 Indianapolis Colts | Indianapolis Colts | 0.5 | Dallas Cowboys by 1.2 | 52% | |
| Sun, Nov. 8 | No. 20 New York Jets at No. 5 Kansas City Chiefs | Kansas City Chiefs | 6.9 | 5.2 | 70% | |
| Sun, Nov. 8 | No. 15 Detroit Lions at No. 30 Miami Dolphins | Detroit Lions | 3.9 | 5.6 | 62% | |
| Sun, Nov. 8 | No. 23 Cleveland Browns at No. 28 New Orleans Saints | New Orleans Saints | 0.7 | Cleveland Browns by 1.0 | 52% | |
| Sun, Nov. 8 | No. 21 New York Giants at No. 31 Philadelphia Eagles | New York Giants | 1.1 | 2.8 | 53% | |
| Sun, Nov. 8 | No. 3 Los Angeles Rams at No. 25 Washington Commanders | Los Angeles Rams | 6.0 | 7.7 | 68% | |
| Sun, Nov. 8 | No. 12 Houston Texans at No. 29 Los Angeles Chargers | Houston Texans | 3.7 | 5.4 | 61% | |
| Sun, Nov. 8 | No. 24 Las Vegas Raiders at No. 2 San Francisco 49ers | San Francisco 49ers | 10.1 | 8.4 | 78% | |
| Sun, Nov. 8 | No. 9 Green Bay Packers at No. 7 New England Patriots | New England Patriots | 2.1 | 0.4 | 57% | |
| Sun, Nov. 8 | No. 26 Arizona Cardinals at No. 6 Seattle Seahawks | Seattle Seahawks | 7.9 | 6.2 | 73% | |
| Sun, Nov. 8 | No. 10 Tampa Bay Buccaneers at No. 8 Chicago Bears | Chicago Bears | 2.8 | 1.1 | 58% | |
| Mon, Nov. 9 | No. 4 Buffalo Bills at No. 14 Minnesota Vikings | Buffalo Bills | 1.1 | 2.8 | 53% |
Idle: No. 16 Pittsburgh Steelers, No. 32 Tennessee Titans. Days are Eastern time. Ranks are this week's. Win probability is modeled, not measured.
These expectations are locked as of this edition. Next week's edition will score each game against its result: whether the favorite won, and how far the final margin landed from the expected one.
Methodology
Each edition uses two stored builds of the Pascal Rating for the NFL (nfl-rating-v1): the build from before Week 8 kicked off (Oct. 29, 2026) and the build after all Week 8 games (Nov. 3, 2026). Ranks are computed among the 32 rated teams.
See how the ratings have been scored in public, season by season and in retrospective studies, in the Track Record.
References and data
- Pascal Rating builds of nfl-rating-v1, Oct. 29, 2026 and Nov. 3, 2026: ratings and ranks.
- AnalytIQ game catalog: records, scores and the Week 9 schedule.
- AnalytIQ, NFL Rating v1 specification, Sprint 2 validation report and NFL rating-to-margin calibration: the rating definition, the 0.361-point margin per rating point, the 1.7-point home effect and the 13.0-point holdout error.
- Pascal Institute: How the NFL Ratings Work
- The Week 8 expectations scored here were published on November 3, 2026, after the games were played, from ratings computed before the first Week 8 kickoff. Treat this scorecard as a retrospective check, not a live test.