San Francisco stays No. 1 in the Pascal Institute NFL Power Rankings after a 29-20 loss at Atlanta, and Seattle climbs to No. 3 after beating Kansas City 20-3. The 49ers (6-1) rate 114.8, and Jacksonville, idle this week, stays No. 2 at 113.9. The Seahawks' rating rose 2.1 points, and the Chiefs fall from No. 3 to No. 5.
Favorites won 8 of 14 games, close to the 8.3 we expected, but the margins were wide: final scores landed an average of 11.5 points from our expectations, against the rating's typical error of 13.0 points. The biggest upset was the Giants' 27-21 win at Houston as a 28% underdog. Tampa Bay's 43-13 win at Carolina missed our expectation by 33.4 points, and the Buccaneers' rating rose 5.2 points, the largest gain of the week.
The top six are separated by 7.75 rating points, about 2.80 points of expected margin on a neutral field. In Week 8, No. 9 Chicago visits No. 3 Seattle on Monday night, No. 5 Kansas City plays at No. 11 Denver, and No. 2 Jacksonville hosts No. 21 Indianapolis. San Francisco, Houston, the Giants and New Orleans are idle. This edition was published late, after the Week 8 games; see the note under References.
Last Week's Expectations, Scored
Favorites won 8 of 14 games, against about 8.3 expected from the win probabilities we published. Final margins landed an average of 11.5 points from our expectations, compared with the rating's typical error of 13.0 points. The biggest upset was New York Giants over Houston Texans, which we had given a 28% chance.
| Game | Favorite | Expected margin (pts) | Result | Favorite won? | Miss (pts) | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No. 7 New England Patriots at No. 10 Chicago Bears | Chicago Bears | 0.9 | Chicago Bears 30-24 | Yes | +5.1 | |
| No. 18 Pittsburgh Steelers vs. No. 27 New Orleans Saints (neutral site) | Pittsburgh Steelers | 2.7 | Pittsburgh Steelers 16-10 | Yes | +3.3 | |
| No. 1 San Francisco 49ers at No. 17 Atlanta Falcons | San Francisco 49ers | 4.4 | Atlanta Falcons 29-20 | No | -13.4 | |
| No. 16 Cincinnati Bengals at No. 9 Baltimore Ravens | Baltimore Ravens | 3.8 | Cincinnati Bengals 35-13 | No | -25.8 | |
| No. 19 Tampa Bay Buccaneers at No. 15 Carolina Panthers | Carolina Panthers | 3.4 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers 43-13 | No | -33.4 | |
| No. 29 New York Giants at No. 8 Houston Texans | Houston Texans | 7.7 | New York Giants 27-21 | No | -13.7 | |
| No. 20 Indianapolis Colts at No. 12 Minnesota Vikings | Minnesota Vikings | 4.6 | Minnesota Vikings 16-10 | Yes | +1.4 | |
| No. 31 Miami Dolphins at No. 22 New York Jets | New York Jets | 4.1 | Miami Dolphins 28-25 | No | -7.1 | |
| No. 21 Cleveland Browns at No. 32 Tennessee Titans | Cleveland Browns | 2.8 | Cleveland Browns 27-24 | Yes | +0.2 | |
| No. 14 Denver Broncos at No. 25 Arizona Cardinals | Denver Broncos | 2.3 | Denver Broncos 30-16 | Yes | +11.7 | |
| No. 11 Green Bay Packers at No. 13 Detroit Lions | Detroit Lions | 1.3 | Detroit Lions 20-17 | Yes | +1.7 | |
| No. 5 Los Angeles Rams at No. 23 Las Vegas Raiders | Los Angeles Rams | 4.2 | Los Angeles Rams 35-21 | Yes | +9.8 | |
| No. 3 Kansas City Chiefs at No. 4 Seattle Seahawks | Seattle Seahawks | 0.7 | Seattle Seahawks 20-3 | Yes | +16.3 | |
| No. 24 Dallas Cowboys at No. 28 Philadelphia Eagles | Philadelphia Eagles | 1.1 | Dallas Cowboys 38-21 | No | -18.1 |
Expected margins are the locked values from the Week 7 edition, from the favorite's view, including home field. Miss is the actual margin minus the expected margin; positive means the favorite did better than expected.
The Rankings After Week 7
| Trend | Rank | Last week | Team | Record | Rating | Change | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ● | 1 | 1 | San Francisco 49ers | 6-1 | 114.8 | -0.6 | |
| ● | 2 | 2 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 4-2 | 113.9 | +0.1 | |
| ▲ | 3 | 4 | Seattle Seahawks | 4-3 | 111.2 | +2.1 | |
| ▲ | 4 | 5 | Los Angeles Rams | 3-4 | 110.6 | +1.8 | |
| ▼ | 5 | 3 | Kansas City Chiefs | 5-1 | 109.4 | -2.6 | |
| ● | 6 | 6 | Buffalo Bills | 5-1 | 107.0 | -0.5 | |
| ● | 7 | 7 | New England Patriots | 4-3 | 106.7 | -0.7 | |
| ▲ | 8 | 11 | Green Bay Packers | 4-3 | 105.2 | +1.1 | |
| ▲ | 9 | 10 | Chicago Bears | 5-2 | 105.0 | -0.3 | |
| ▲ | 10 | 16 | Cincinnati Bengals | 4-2 | 104.6 | +4.8 | |
| ▲ | 11 | 14 | Denver Broncos | 5-2 | 104.3 | +1.8 | |
| ● | 12 | 12 | Minnesota Vikings | 6-0 | 103.9 | +0.2 | |
| ▼ | 13 | 8 | Houston Texans | 2-5 | 103.7 | -3.2 | |
| ▼ | 14 | 9 | Baltimore Ravens | 4-3 | 102.5 | -3.0 | |
| ▲ | 15 | 19 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 2-5 | 102.4 | +5.2 | |
| ▼ | 16 | 13 | Detroit Lions | 4-2 | 101.3 | -1.7 | |
| ● | 17 | 17 | Atlanta Falcons | 3-4 | 99.5 | +1.1 | |
| ● | 18 | 18 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 5-2 | 99.1 | +0.9 | |
| ▼ | 19 | 15 | Carolina Panthers | 3-3 | 97.8 | -4.2 | |
| ▲ | 20 | 21 | Cleveland Browns | 5-2 | 95.3 | +0.8 | |
| ▼ | 21 | 20 | Indianapolis Colts | 2-5 | 95.0 | -0.6 | |
| ▲ | 22 | 24 | Dallas Cowboys | 3-4 | 94.8 | +2.6 | |
| ▲ | 23 | 29 | New York Giants | 4-2-1 | 93.8 | +3.5 | |
| ▼ | 24 | 22 | New York Jets | 2-5 | 93.2 | -0.2 | |
| ▲ | 25 | 26 | Los Angeles Chargers | 0-6 | 91.0 | -0.2 | |
| ▲ | 26 | 30 | Washington Commanders | 1-4-1 | 90.5 | +0.4 | |
| ● | 27 | 27 | New Orleans Saints | 2-5 | 90.4 | -0.3 | |
| ▼ | 28 | 23 | Las Vegas Raiders | 3-4 | 90.4 | -2.0 | |
| ▼ | 29 | 25 | Arizona Cardinals | 2-5 | 89.9 | -1.6 | |
| ▲ | 30 | 31 | Miami Dolphins | 1-5 | 87.5 | +0.8 | |
| ▼ | 31 | 28 | Philadelphia Eagles | 2-5 | 87.5 | -3.2 | |
| ● | 32 | 32 | Tennessee Titans | 1-6 | 80.7 | -1.2 |
Last week is the rank before Week 7 kicked off. Change is in rating points. Ties at one decimal are ordered by the unrounded rating. Team names link to the live NFL Team Ratings.
The rating is a forecast of strength, not a résumé, so a team can move up after a loss or down after a win. A team that did not play still moves when the teams it has already faced gain or lose rating.
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Who Moved and Why
Seattle Seahawks (▲ 4 to 3) and Kansas City Chiefs (▼ 3 to 5). We made Seattle a 0.7-point favorite at home, close to a toss-up. The Seahawks won 20-3, 16.3 points better than we expected, and their rating rose 2.1 points. Kansas City's fell 2.6 points, the largest drop among the top ten, and the Chiefs slip two spots to No. 5.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (▲ 19 to 15) and Carolina Panthers (▼ 15 to 19). Carolina was a 3.4-point favorite at home, with a 60% chance of winning. Tampa Bay won 43-13, the widest miss of the week at 33.4 points. The Buccaneers' rating rose 5.2 points and they climb four spots to No. 15; the Panthers' fell 4.2 points and they drop four, to No. 19.
Cincinnati Bengals (▲ 16 to 10) and Baltimore Ravens (▼ 9 to 14). Baltimore was a 3.8-point favorite at home. Cincinnati won 35-13, and its rating rose 4.8 points, moving the Bengals up six spots to No. 10. The Ravens fall five spots to No. 14.
New York Giants (▲ 29 to 23) and Houston Texans (▼ 8 to 13). Houston was a 7.7-point favorite with a 72% chance of winning. The Giants won 27-21 on the road, the biggest upset of the week, and climb six spots to No. 23. The Texans' rating fell 3.2 points and they drop five, to No. 13.
San Francisco 49ers (● 1) and Atlanta Falcons (● 17). We expected the 49ers to win at Atlanta by 4.4 points. The Falcons won 29-20 as a 37% underdog. San Francisco's rating fell only 0.6 points, enough to stay No. 1, and Atlanta stays No. 17.
Dallas Cowboys (▲ 24 to 22) and Philadelphia Eagles (▼ 28 to 31). Philadelphia was a 1.1-point favorite at home on Monday night. Dallas won 38-21, 18.1 points from our expectation. The Cowboys move up two spots to No. 22, and the Eagles, now 2-5, fall three to No. 31.
Denver Broncos (▲ 14 to 11) and Arizona Cardinals (▼ 25 to 29). Denver won 30-16 at Arizona, 11.7 points better than we expected. The Broncos' rating rose 1.8 points and they move up three spots to No. 11; the Cardinals fall four, to No. 29.
Los Angeles Rams (▲ 5 to 4) and Las Vegas Raiders (▼ 23 to 28). The Rams won 35-21 at Las Vegas, 9.8 points better than we expected, and move up one spot to No. 4. The Raiders' rating fell 2.0 points and they drop five spots to No. 28.
Green Bay Packers (▲ 11 to 8) and Detroit Lions (▼ 13 to 16). Detroit beat Green Bay 20-17 at home as a 1.3-point favorite, yet the Packers' rating rose 1.1 points and they move up three spots to No. 8, while the Lions fall three to No. 16. The rating weighs per-play efficiency rather than the final score, so a narrow loss can still raise a team's rating.
Washington Commanders (▲ 30 to 26). Washington was idle. Its rating rose 0.4 points while teams around it lost, and the Commanders move up four spots to No. 26.
Week 8: What We Expect
Of the 32 teams, 28 play in 14 games and four are idle. Expected margins include 1.7 points of home field, and the favorite is the team expected to win after that adjustment. If the ratings are well calibrated, about 8.8 of the 14 favorites should win. Five games are within 3 points and close to a toss-up. Home field flips one pick: Detroit Lions is a 0.8-point favorite over Minnesota Vikings, which the neutral-field rating favors by 0.9.
| Day | Game | Favorite | Expected margin with home field (pts) | Neutral-field margin (pts) | Win probability | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu, Oct. 29 | No. 19 Carolina Panthers at No. 8 Green Bay Packers | Green Bay Packers | 4.4 | 2.7 | 63% | |
| Sun, Nov. 1 | No. 14 Baltimore Ravens at No. 6 Buffalo Bills | Buffalo Bills | 3.4 | 1.7 | 60% | |
| Sun, Nov. 1 | No. 32 Tennessee Titans at No. 10 Cincinnati Bengals | Cincinnati Bengals | 10.3 | 8.6 | 79% | |
| Sun, Nov. 1 | No. 29 Arizona Cardinals at No. 22 Dallas Cowboys | Dallas Cowboys | 3.5 | 1.8 | 61% | |
| Sun, Nov. 1 | No. 12 Minnesota Vikings at No. 16 Detroit Lions | Detroit Lions | 0.8 | Minnesota Vikings by 0.9 | 52% | |
| Sun, Nov. 1 | No. 21 Indianapolis Colts at No. 2 Jacksonville Jaguars | Jacksonville Jaguars | 8.5 | 6.8 | 74% | |
| Sun, Nov. 1 | No. 28 Las Vegas Raiders at No. 24 New York Jets | New York Jets | 2.7 | 1.0 | 58% | |
| Sun, Nov. 1 | No. 20 Cleveland Browns at No. 18 Pittsburgh Steelers | Pittsburgh Steelers | 3.1 | 1.4 | 59% | |
| Sun, Nov. 1 | No. 17 Atlanta Falcons at No. 15 Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 2.7 | 1.0 | 58% | |
| Sun, Nov. 1 | No. 25 Los Angeles Chargers at No. 4 Los Angeles Rams | Los Angeles Rams | 8.8 | 7.1 | 75% | |
| Sun, Nov. 1 | No. 5 Kansas City Chiefs at No. 11 Denver Broncos | Kansas City Chiefs | 0.1 | 1.8 | 50% | |
| Sun, Nov. 1 | No. 7 New England Patriots at No. 30 Miami Dolphins | New England Patriots | 5.2 | 6.9 | 66% | |
| Sun, Nov. 1 | No. 31 Philadelphia Eagles at No. 26 Washington Commanders | Washington Commanders | 2.8 | 1.1 | 59% | |
| Mon, Nov. 2 | No. 9 Chicago Bears at No. 3 Seattle Seahawks | Seattle Seahawks | 3.9 | 2.2 | 62% |
Idle: No. 1 San Francisco 49ers, No. 13 Houston Texans, No. 23 New York Giants, No. 27 New Orleans Saints. Days are Eastern time. Ranks are this week's. Win probability is modeled, not measured.
These expectations are locked as of this edition. Next week's edition will score each game against its result: whether the favorite won, and how far the final margin landed from the expected one.
Methodology
Each edition uses two stored builds of the Pascal Rating for the NFL (nfl-rating-v1): the build from before Week 7 kicked off (Oct. 22, 2026) and the build after all Week 7 games (Oct. 27, 2026). Ranks are computed among the 32 rated teams.
See how the ratings have been scored in public, season by season and in retrospective studies, in the Track Record.
References and data
- Pascal Rating builds of nfl-rating-v1, Oct. 22, 2026 and Oct. 27, 2026: ratings and ranks.
- AnalytIQ game catalog: records, scores and the Week 8 schedule.
- AnalytIQ, NFL Rating v1 specification, Sprint 2 validation report and NFL rating-to-margin calibration: the rating definition, the 0.361-point margin per rating point, the 1.7-point home effect and the 13.0-point holdout error.
- Pascal Institute: How the NFL Ratings Work
- This edition was published on November 3, 2026, after the Week 8 games were played. Its rankings and Week 8 expectations come from the rating build of October 27, 2026, made before the first Week 8 kickoff, and are shown exactly as that build computed them. Because they were not public before the games, the Week 9 edition's scorecard of them is a retrospective check, not a live test.