San Francisco is No. 1 in the Pascal Institute NFL Power Rankings after a 23–17 win over Washington, and Jacksonville falls to No. 2 after a 34–31 loss to Houston in London. The 49ers (6–0) rate 115.4 and the Jaguars (4–2) 113.8. Kansas City climbs from No. 4 to No. 3 after beating the Chargers 22–6, and the Rams fall from No. 3 to No. 5 after a home loss to Arizona.
It was a week for underdogs. Favorites won 6 of 14 games, against about 8.8 expected from the probabilities we published, and the other eight games were won by the underdog. The biggest upset was Arizona's 18–16 win at the Rams as a 23% underdog. Most of the misses were close: final margins landed an average of 6.9 points from our expectations, compared with the rating's typical error of 13.0 points.
The top six are separated by 7.9 rating points, about 2.9 points of expected margin on a neutral field. This week No. 3 Kansas City visits No. 4 Seattle on Sunday night, No. 1 San Francisco plays at No. 17 Atlanta, and No. 18 Pittsburgh and No. 27 New Orleans meet at Stade de France in Paris. Jacksonville, Buffalo, the Chargers and Washington are idle.
Last Week's Expectations, Scored
Favorites won 6 of 14 games, against about 8.8 expected from the win probabilities we published. Final margins landed an average of 6.9 points from our expectations, compared with the rating's typical error of 13.0 points. The biggest upset was Arizona Cardinals over Los Angeles Rams, which we had given a 23% chance.
| Game | Favorite | Expected margin (pts) | Result | Favorite won? | Miss (pts) | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No. 5 Seattle Seahawks at No. 10 Denver Broncos | Seattle Seahawks | 0.5 | Denver Broncos 17–14 | No | −3.5 | |
| No. 8 Houston Texans vs. No. 1 Jacksonville Jaguars (neutral site) | Jacksonville Jaguars | 3.2 | Houston Texans 34–31 | No | −6.2 | |
| No. 13 Chicago Bears at No. 15 Atlanta Falcons | Atlanta Falcons | 0.8 | Chicago Bears 31–23 | No | −8.8 | |
| No. 9 Baltimore Ravens at No. 21 Cleveland Browns | Baltimore Ravens | 2.8 | Cleveland Browns 13–10 | No | −5.8 | |
| No. 32 Tennessee Titans at No. 20 Indianapolis Colts | Indianapolis Colts | 6.9 | Tennessee Titans 26–20 | No | −12.9 | |
| No. 25 New York Jets at No. 7 New England Patriots | New England Patriots | 7.3 | New England Patriots 26–19 | Yes | −0.3 | |
| No. 28 New Orleans Saints at No. 27 New York Giants | New York Giants | 1.9 | New Orleans Saints 34–27 | No | −8.9 | |
| No. 16 Carolina Panthers at No. 24 Philadelphia Eagles | Carolina Panthers | 0.8 | Carolina Panthers 25–14 | Yes | +10.2 | |
| No. 19 Pittsburgh Steelers at No. 18 Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 2.0 | Pittsburgh Steelers 26–19 | No | −9.0 | |
| No. 30 Arizona Cardinals at No. 3 Los Angeles Rams | Los Angeles Rams | 9.8 | Arizona Cardinals 18–16 | No | −11.8 | |
| No. 22 Los Angeles Chargers at No. 4 Kansas City Chiefs | Kansas City Chiefs | 7.5 | Kansas City Chiefs 22–6 | Yes | +8.5 | |
| No. 6 Buffalo Bills at No. 26 Las Vegas Raiders | Buffalo Bills | 4.1 | Buffalo Bills 33–30 | Yes | −1.1 | |
| No. 23 Dallas Cowboys at No. 12 Green Bay Packers | Green Bay Packers | 5.4 | Green Bay Packers 23–13 | Yes | +4.6 | |
| No. 29 Washington Commanders at No. 2 San Francisco 49ers | San Francisco 49ers | 10.5 | San Francisco 49ers 23–17 | Yes | −4.5 |
Expected margins are the locked values from the Week 6 edition, from the favorite's view, including home field. Miss is the actual margin minus the expected margin; positive means the favorite did better than expected.
The Rankings After Week 6
| Trend | Rank | Last week | Team | Record | Rating | Change | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ | 1 | 2 | San Francisco 49ers | 6–0 | 115.4 | +0.7 | |
| ▼ | 2 | 1 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 4–2 | 113.8 | −1.3 | |
| ▲ | 3 | 4 | Kansas City Chiefs | 5–0 | 111.9 | +2.3 | |
| ▲ | 4 | 5 | Seattle Seahawks | 3–3 | 109.2 | −0.4 | |
| ▼ | 5 | 3 | Los Angeles Rams | 2–4 | 108.8 | −3.1 | |
| ● | 6 | 6 | Buffalo Bills | 5–1 | 107.5 | −0.4 | |
| ● | 7 | 7 | New England Patriots | 4–2 | 107.4 | −0.2 | |
| ● | 8 | 8 | Houston Texans | 2–4 | 106.9 | +0.7 | |
| ● | 9 | 9 | Baltimore Ravens | 4–2 | 105.5 | −0.5 | |
| ▲ | 10 | 13 | Chicago Bears | 4–2 | 105.3 | +2.5 | |
| ▲ | 11 | 12 | Green Bay Packers | 4–2 | 104.1 | +0.7 | |
| ▼ | 12 | 11 | Minnesota Vikings | 5–0 | 103.7 | +0.3 | |
| ▲ | 13 | 14 | Detroit Lions | 3–2 | 103.0 | +0.4 | |
| ▼ | 14 | 10 | Denver Broncos | 4–2 | 102.5 | −1.0 | |
| ▲ | 15 | 16 | Carolina Panthers | 3–2 | 102.0 | +2.2 | |
| ▲ | 16 | 17 | Cincinnati Bengals | 3–2 | 99.7 | 0.0 | |
| ▼ | 17 | 15 | Atlanta Falcons | 2–4 | 98.4 | −2.0 | |
| ▲ | 18 | 19 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 4–2 | 98.2 | +0.9 | |
| ▼ | 19 | 18 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 1–5 | 97.2 | −0.9 | |
| ● | 20 | 20 | Indianapolis Colts | 2–4 | 95.6 | −0.5 | |
| ● | 21 | 21 | Cleveland Browns | 4–2 | 94.5 | +0.9 | |
| ▲ | 22 | 25 | New York Jets | 2–4 | 93.4 | +1.3 | |
| ▲ | 23 | 26 | Las Vegas Raiders | 3–3 | 92.4 | +0.7 | |
| ▼ | 24 | 23 | Dallas Cowboys | 2–4 | 92.3 | −0.9 | |
| ▲ | 25 | 30 | Arizona Cardinals | 2–4 | 91.5 | +2.0 | |
| ▼ | 26 | 22 | Los Angeles Chargers | 0–6 | 91.2 | −2.3 | |
| ▲ | 27 | 28 | New Orleans Saints | 2–4 | 90.7 | 0.0 | |
| ▼ | 28 | 24 | Philadelphia Eagles | 2–4 | 90.7 | −2.2 | |
| ▼ | 29 | 27 | New York Giants | 3–2–1 | 90.4 | −0.7 | |
| ▼ | 30 | 29 | Washington Commanders | 1–4–1 | 90.1 | −0.1 | |
| ● | 31 | 31 | Miami Dolphins | 0–5 | 86.7 | +0.2 | |
| ● | 32 | 32 | Tennessee Titans | 1–5 | 81.9 | +0.2 |
Last week is the rank before Week 6 kicked off. Change is in rating points. Ties at one decimal are ordered by the unrounded rating. Team names link to the live NFL Team Ratings.
The rating is a forecast of strength, not a résumé, so a team can move up after a loss or down after a win. A team that did not play still moves when the teams it has already faced gain or lose rating.
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Who Moved and Why
San Francisco 49ers (▲ 2 to 1). We expected the 49ers to beat Washington by 10.5 points at home. They won 23–17, 4.5 points short, but their rating still rose 0.7 points to 115.4, enough to pass Jacksonville. San Francisco is one of three unbeaten teams, with Kansas City and Minnesota.
Jacksonville Jaguars (▼ 1 to 2) and Houston Texans (● 8). Jacksonville was a 3.2-point favorite against Houston at Wembley Stadium, with a 60% chance of winning. Houston won 34–31. The Jaguars' rating fell 1.3 points and they drop to No. 2; the Texans stay at No. 8.
Kansas City Chiefs (▲ 4 to 3) and Los Angeles Chargers (▼ 22 to 26). Kansas City beat the Chargers 22–6, 8.5 points better than we expected, and its rating rose 2.3 points, moving the Chiefs up one spot to No. 3. The Chargers, now 0–6, fall four spots to No. 26.
Los Angeles Rams (▼ 3 to 5) and Arizona Cardinals (▲ 30 to 25). We made the Rams a 9.8-point favorite at home against Arizona, with a 77% chance of winning. Arizona won 18–16, the biggest upset of the week. The Rams' rating fell 3.1 points, the largest drop in the league, and the Cardinals climb five spots to No. 25.
Chicago Bears (▲ 13 to 10) and Atlanta Falcons (▼ 15 to 17). Atlanta was a 0.8-point favorite at home. Chicago won 31–23, and its rating rose 2.5 points, the largest gain of the week. The Bears move up three spots to No. 10 and the Falcons fall two, to No. 17.
Carolina Panthers (▲ 16 to 15) and Philadelphia Eagles (▼ 24 to 28). Carolina won 25–14 at Philadelphia, 10.2 points better than we expected. The Panthers' rating rose 2.2 points, and the Eagles, now 2–4, fall four spots to No. 28.
Denver Broncos (▼ 10 to 14). Denver beat Seattle 17–14 at home as a slight underdog, yet its rating fell 1.0 point and it drops four spots to No. 14. The rating weighs per-play efficiency rather than the final score, so a narrow win can still cost a team rating.
Tennessee Titans (● 32) and Indianapolis Colts (● 20). Tennessee won 26–20 at Indianapolis as a 30% underdog, its first win of the season. The Titans still rate last, at 81.9.
Week 7: What We Expect
Of the 32 teams, 28 play in 14 games and four are idle. Expected margins include 1.7 points of home field, and the favorite is the team expected to win after that adjustment. If the ratings are well calibrated, about 8.3 of the 14 favorites should win. Seven games are within 3 points and close to a toss-up. Home field flips four picks, each a home team the neutral-field rating had as a slight underdog: Chicago Bears over New England Patriots, Detroit Lions over Green Bay Packers, Seattle Seahawks over Kansas City Chiefs, Philadelphia Eagles over Dallas Cowboys.
| Day | Game | Favorite | Expected margin with home field (pts) | Neutral-field margin (pts) | Win probability | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu, Oct. 22 | No. 7 New England Patriots at No. 10 Chicago Bears | Chicago Bears | 0.9 | New England Patriots by 0.8 | 53% | |
| Sun, Oct. 25 | No. 18 Pittsburgh Steelers vs. No. 27 New Orleans Saints (neutral site) | Pittsburgh Steelers | 2.7 | 2.7 | 58% | |
| Sun, Oct. 25 | No. 1 San Francisco 49ers at No. 17 Atlanta Falcons | San Francisco 49ers | 4.4 | 6.1 | 63% | |
| Sun, Oct. 25 | No. 16 Cincinnati Bengals at No. 9 Baltimore Ravens | Baltimore Ravens | 3.8 | 2.1 | 61% | |
| Sun, Oct. 25 | No. 19 Tampa Bay Buccaneers at No. 15 Carolina Panthers | Carolina Panthers | 3.4 | 1.7 | 60% | |
| Sun, Oct. 25 | No. 29 New York Giants at No. 8 Houston Texans | Houston Texans | 7.7 | 6.0 | 72% | |
| Sun, Oct. 25 | No. 20 Indianapolis Colts at No. 12 Minnesota Vikings | Minnesota Vikings | 4.6 | 2.9 | 64% | |
| Sun, Oct. 25 | No. 31 Miami Dolphins at No. 22 New York Jets | New York Jets | 4.1 | 2.4 | 62% | |
| Sun, Oct. 25 | No. 21 Cleveland Browns at No. 32 Tennessee Titans | Cleveland Browns | 2.8 | 4.5 | 59% | |
| Sun, Oct. 25 | No. 14 Denver Broncos at No. 25 Arizona Cardinals | Denver Broncos | 2.3 | 4.0 | 57% | |
| Sun, Oct. 25 | No. 11 Green Bay Packers at No. 13 Detroit Lions | Detroit Lions | 1.3 | Green Bay Packers by 0.4 | 54% | |
| Sun, Oct. 25 | No. 5 Los Angeles Rams at No. 23 Las Vegas Raiders | Los Angeles Rams | 4.2 | 5.9 | 63% | |
| Sun, Oct. 25 | No. 3 Kansas City Chiefs at No. 4 Seattle Seahawks | Seattle Seahawks | 0.7 | Kansas City Chiefs by 1.0 | 52% | |
| Mon, Oct. 26 | No. 24 Dallas Cowboys at No. 28 Philadelphia Eagles | Philadelphia Eagles | 1.1 | Dallas Cowboys by 0.6 | 53% |
Idle: No. 2 Jacksonville Jaguars, No. 6 Buffalo Bills, No. 26 Los Angeles Chargers, No. 30 Washington Commanders. Days are Eastern time. Ranks are this week's. Win probability is modeled, not measured.
These expectations are locked as of this edition. Next week's edition will score each game against its result: whether the favorite won, and how far the final margin landed from the expected one.
Methodology
Each edition uses two stored builds of the Pascal Rating for the NFL (nfl-rating-v1): the build from before Week 6 kicked off (Oct. 15, 2026) and the build after all Week 6 games (Oct. 20, 2026). Ranks are computed among the 32 rated teams.
See how the ratings have been scored in public, season by season and in retrospective studies, in the Track Record.
References and data
- Pascal Rating builds of nfl-rating-v1, Oct. 15, 2026 and Oct. 20, 2026: ratings and ranks.
- AnalytIQ game catalog: records, scores and the Week 7 schedule.
- AnalytIQ, NFL Rating v1 specification, Sprint 2 validation report and NFL rating-to-margin calibration: the rating definition, the 0.361-point margin per rating point, the 1.7-point home effect and the 13.0-point holdout error.
- Pascal Institute: How the NFL Ratings Work