Jacksonville stays No. 1 in the Pascal Institute NFL Power Rankings after a 19–17 win over Philadelphia in London, and San Francisco moves up to No. 2 after a 32–29 win at Seattle. The Jaguars (4–1) rate 115.2 and the unbeaten 49ers (5–0) 114.7, with the Rams (111.9) a step behind in third. Seattle falls two spots to No. 5.
Green Bay's 31–7 win over Chicago was the biggest surprise of the week: we made the Bears a 2.6-point favorite, so the result missed by 26.6 points. The Packers climbed six spots to No. 12 and the Bears fell seven to No. 13, the largest moves of the week in each direction. New England, Detroit and Houston also won by 18 to 23 points more than we expected.
Favorites won 10 of 15 games, against about 8.5 expected, and the Giants and Commanders tied 27–27. The biggest upset came on Monday night, when Buffalo won 37–34 at the Rams as a 37% underdog. This week Jacksonville plays its second straight London game, against No. 8 Houston at Wembley Stadium.
Last Week's Expectations, Scored
Favorites won 10 of 15 games, against about 8.5 expected from the win probabilities we published. Final margins landed an average of 10.6 points from our expectations, compared with the rating's typical error of 13.0 points. The biggest upset was Buffalo Bills over Los Angeles Rams, which we had given a 37% chance.
| Game | Favorite | Expected margin (pts) | Result | Favorite won? | Miss (pts) | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No. 21 Tampa Bay Buccaneers at No. 23 Dallas Cowboys | Dallas Cowboys | 1.5 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24–16 | No | −9.5 | |
| No. 19 Philadelphia Eagles vs. No. 1 Jacksonville Jaguars (neutral site) | Jacksonville Jaguars | 6.6 | Jacksonville Jaguars 19–17 | Yes | −4.6 | |
| No. 6 Chicago Bears at No. 18 Green Bay Packers | Chicago Bears | 2.6 | Green Bay Packers 31–7 | No | −26.6 | |
| No. 17 Cincinnati Bengals at No. 31 Miami Dolphins | Cincinnati Bengals | 2.0 | Cincinnati Bengals 31–24 | Yes | +5.0 | |
| No. 22 Las Vegas Raiders at No. 9 New England Patriots | New England Patriots | 4.8 | New England Patriots 45–17 | Yes | +23.2 | |
| No. 12 Minnesota Vikings at No. 26 New Orleans Saints | Minnesota Vikings | 1.5 | Minnesota Vikings 23–13 | Yes | +8.5 | |
| No. 25 Cleveland Browns at No. 30 New York Jets | New York Jets | 0.5 | New York Jets 17–12 | Yes | +4.5 | |
| No. 16 Indianapolis Colts at No. 24 Pittsburgh Steelers | Pittsburgh Steelers | 0.3 | Pittsburgh Steelers 34–22 | Yes | +11.7 | |
| No. 11 Houston Texans at No. 32 Tennessee Titans | Houston Texans | 4.7 | Houston Texans 26–3 | Yes | +18.3 | |
| No. 27 New York Giants at No. 29 Washington Commanders | Washington Commanders | 0.9 | Tie 27–27 | No | −0.9 | |
| No. 10 Denver Broncos at No. 20 Los Angeles Chargers | Denver Broncos | 1.2 | Denver Broncos 23–17 | Yes | +4.8 | |
| No. 13 Detroit Lions at No. 28 Arizona Cardinals | Detroit Lions | 1.4 | Detroit Lions 45–21 | Yes | +22.6 | |
| No. 4 San Francisco 49ers at No. 3 Seattle Seahawks | Seattle Seahawks | 1.7 | San Francisco 49ers 32–29 | No | −4.7 | |
| No. 7 Baltimore Ravens at No. 15 Atlanta Falcons | Baltimore Ravens | 0.8 | Baltimore Ravens 30–23 | Yes | +6.2 | |
| No. 8 Buffalo Bills at No. 2 Los Angeles Rams | Los Angeles Rams | 4.2 | Buffalo Bills 37–34 | No | −7.2 |
Expected margins are the locked values from the Week 5 edition, from the favorite's view, including home field. Miss is the actual margin minus the expected margin; positive means the favorite did better than expected.
The Rankings After Week 5
| Trend | Rank | Last week | Team | Record | Rating | Change | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ● | 1 | 1 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 4–1 | 115.2 | +1.3 | |
| ▲ | 2 | 4 | San Francisco 49ers | 5–0 | 114.7 | +2.4 | |
| ▼ | 3 | 2 | Los Angeles Rams | 2–3 | 111.9 | −1.6 | |
| ▲ | 4 | 5 | Kansas City Chiefs | 4–0 | 109.7 | −0.7 | |
| ▼ | 5 | 3 | Seattle Seahawks | 3–2 | 109.6 | −2.8 | |
| ▲ | 6 | 8 | Buffalo Bills | 4–1 | 107.9 | +1.4 | |
| ▲ | 7 | 9 | New England Patriots | 3–2 | 107.6 | +3.8 | |
| ▲ | 8 | 11 | Houston Texans | 1–4 | 106.3 | +3.1 | |
| ▼ | 9 | 7 | Baltimore Ravens | 4–1 | 106.0 | −0.6 | |
| ● | 10 | 10 | Denver Broncos | 3–2 | 103.5 | 0.0 | |
| ▲ | 11 | 12 | Minnesota Vikings | 5–0 | 103.4 | +2.0 | |
| ▲ | 12 | 18 | Green Bay Packers | 3–2 | 103.4 | +6.4 | |
| ▼ | 13 | 6 | Chicago Bears | 3–2 | 102.8 | −6.1 | |
| ▼ | 14 | 13 | Detroit Lions | 3–2 | 102.6 | +1.8 | |
| ● | 15 | 15 | Atlanta Falcons | 2–3 | 100.4 | +0.9 | |
| ▼ | 16 | 14 | Carolina Panthers | 2–2 | 99.7 | −0.4 | |
| ● | 17 | 17 | Cincinnati Bengals | 3–2 | 99.7 | +2.5 | |
| ▲ | 18 | 21 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 1–4 | 98.1 | +2.9 | |
| ▲ | 19 | 24 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 3–2 | 97.3 | +2.7 | |
| ▼ | 20 | 16 | Indianapolis Colts | 2–3 | 96.1 | −2.6 | |
| ▲ | 21 | 25 | Cleveland Browns | 3–2 | 93.6 | +0.4 | |
| ▼ | 22 | 20 | Los Angeles Chargers | 0–5 | 93.5 | −1.8 | |
| ● | 23 | 23 | Dallas Cowboys | 2–3 | 93.2 | −1.5 | |
| ▼ | 24 | 19 | Philadelphia Eagles | 2–3 | 92.9 | −2.9 | |
| ▲ | 25 | 30 | New York Jets | 2–3 | 92.1 | +2.3 | |
| ▼ | 26 | 22 | Las Vegas Raiders | 3–2 | 91.8 | −3.4 | |
| ● | 27 | 27 | New York Giants | 3–1–1 | 91.1 | −1.5 | |
| ▼ | 28 | 26 | New Orleans Saints | 1–4 | 90.7 | −1.9 | |
| ● | 29 | 29 | Washington Commanders | 1–3–1 | 90.2 | −0.1 | |
| ▼ | 30 | 28 | Arizona Cardinals | 1–4 | 89.5 | −2.7 | |
| ● | 31 | 31 | Miami Dolphins | 0–5 | 86.5 | −0.6 | |
| ● | 32 | 32 | Tennessee Titans | 0–5 | 81.7 | −3.9 |
Last week is the rank before Week 5 kicked off. Change is in rating points. Ties at one decimal are ordered by the unrounded rating. Team names link to the live NFL Team Ratings.
The rating is a forecast of strength, not a résumé, so a team can move up after a loss or down after a win. A team that did not play still moves when the teams it has already faced gain or lose rating.
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Who Moved and Why
San Francisco 49ers (▲ 4 to 2). The 49ers won 32–29 at Seattle as a 1.7-point underdog, and their rating rose 2.4 points to 114.7, half a point behind Jacksonville. They are one of three unbeaten teams, with Kansas City and Minnesota.
Seattle Seahawks (▼ 3 to 5). Seattle lost at home to San Francisco and its rating fell 2.8 points, the largest drop of any top-10 team. The Seahawks drop from No. 3 to No. 5.
Green Bay Packers (▲ 18 to 12) and Chicago Bears (▼ 6 to 13). We made Chicago a 2.6-point favorite at Green Bay. The Packers won 31–7, a 26.6-point miss and the biggest of the week. Green Bay's rating rose 6.4 points and Chicago's fell 6.1, the largest moves of the week in each direction.
New England Patriots (▲ 9 to 7) and Las Vegas Raiders (▼ 22 to 26). New England beat Las Vegas 45–17, 23.2 points better than we expected, and its rating rose 3.8 points, moving the Patriots up two spots to No. 7. The Raiders fell four spots to No. 26 despite a 3–2 record.
Houston Texans (▲ 11 to 8) and Tennessee Titans (● 32). Houston won 26–3 at Tennessee, 18.3 points better than expected, and climbed three spots to No. 8. At 1–4 the Texans rate far above their record, because the rating weighs per-play efficiency rather than wins. Tennessee's rating fell 3.9 points to 81.7, the lowest in the league.
Buffalo Bills (▲ 8 to 6) and Los Angeles Rams (▼ 2 to 3). Buffalo won 37–34 at the Rams on Monday night as a 37% underdog, the biggest upset of the week. The Bills moved up two spots to No. 6, and the Rams, now 2–3, slipped one spot to No. 3.
Detroit Lions (▼ 13 to 14). Detroit won 45–21 at Arizona, 22.6 points better than expected, and its rating rose 1.8 points. The Lions still slipped one spot to No. 14, because Green Bay jumped past them.
Philadelphia Eagles (▼ 19 to 24). The Eagles lost 19–17 to Jacksonville in London, 4.6 points closer than we expected, but fell five spots to No. 24 and 2.9 rating points. A strong 2025 rating keeps losing weight to a weaker 2026 season.
Pittsburgh Steelers (▲ 24 to 19) and Indianapolis Colts (▼ 16 to 20). We rated Pittsburgh's home game against Indianapolis nearly even. The Steelers won 34–22 and moved up five spots to No. 19; the Colts fell four spots to No. 20.
New York Giants (● 27) and Washington Commanders (● 29). The Giants and Commanders tied 27–27 in Washington, where we made the Commanders a 53% favorite. Both teams hold their spots, at No. 27 and No. 29.
Week 6: What We Expect
Of the 32 teams, 28 play in 14 games and four are idle. Expected margins include 1.7 points of home field, and the favorite is the team expected to win after that adjustment. If the ratings are well calibrated, about 8.8 of the 14 favorites should win. Six games are within 3 points and close to a toss-up. Home field flips one pick: Atlanta Falcons is a 0.8-point favorite over Chicago Bears, which the neutral-field rating favors by 0.9.
| Day | Game | Favorite | Expected margin with home field (pts) | Neutral-field margin (pts) | Win probability | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu, Oct. 15 | No. 5 Seattle Seahawks at No. 10 Denver Broncos | Seattle Seahawks | 0.5 | 2.2 | 52% | |
| Sun, Oct. 18 | No. 8 Houston Texans vs. No. 1 Jacksonville Jaguars (neutral site) | Jacksonville Jaguars | 3.2 | 3.2 | 60% | |
| Sun, Oct. 18 | No. 13 Chicago Bears at No. 15 Atlanta Falcons | Atlanta Falcons | 0.8 | Chicago Bears by 0.9 | 53% | |
| Sun, Oct. 18 | No. 9 Baltimore Ravens at No. 21 Cleveland Browns | Baltimore Ravens | 2.8 | 4.5 | 58% | |
| Sun, Oct. 18 | No. 32 Tennessee Titans at No. 20 Indianapolis Colts | Indianapolis Colts | 6.9 | 5.2 | 70% | |
| Sun, Oct. 18 | No. 25 New York Jets at No. 7 New England Patriots | New England Patriots | 7.3 | 5.6 | 71% | |
| Sun, Oct. 18 | No. 28 New Orleans Saints at No. 27 New York Giants | New York Giants | 1.9 | 0.2 | 56% | |
| Sun, Oct. 18 | No. 16 Carolina Panthers at No. 24 Philadelphia Eagles | Carolina Panthers | 0.8 | 2.5 | 52% | |
| Sun, Oct. 18 | No. 19 Pittsburgh Steelers at No. 18 Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 2.0 | 0.3 | 56% | |
| Sun, Oct. 18 | No. 30 Arizona Cardinals at No. 3 Los Angeles Rams | Los Angeles Rams | 9.8 | 8.1 | 77% | |
| Sun, Oct. 18 | No. 22 Los Angeles Chargers at No. 4 Kansas City Chiefs | Kansas City Chiefs | 7.5 | 5.8 | 72% | |
| Sun, Oct. 18 | No. 6 Buffalo Bills at No. 26 Las Vegas Raiders | Buffalo Bills | 4.1 | 5.8 | 62% | |
| Sun, Oct. 18 | No. 23 Dallas Cowboys at No. 12 Green Bay Packers | Green Bay Packers | 5.4 | 3.7 | 66% | |
| Mon, Oct. 19 | No. 29 Washington Commanders at No. 2 San Francisco 49ers | San Francisco 49ers | 10.5 | 8.8 | 79% |
Idle: No. 11 Minnesota Vikings, No. 14 Detroit Lions, No. 17 Cincinnati Bengals, No. 31 Miami Dolphins. Days are Eastern time. Ranks are this week's. Win probability is modeled, not measured.
These expectations are locked as of this edition. Next week's edition will score each game against its result: whether the favorite won, and how far the final margin landed from the expected one.
Methodology
Each edition uses two stored builds of the AnalytIQ NFL Team Rating (nfl-rating-v1): the build from before Week 5 kicked off (Oct. 8, 2026) and the build after all Week 5 games (Oct. 13, 2026). Ranks are computed among the 32 rated teams.
References and data
- AnalytIQ rating builds of nfl-rating-v1, Oct. 8, 2026 and Oct. 13, 2026: ratings and ranks.
- AnalytIQ game catalog: records, scores and the Week 6 schedule.
- AnalytIQ, NFL Rating v1 specification, Sprint 2 validation report and NFL rating-to-margin calibration: the rating definition, the 0.361-point margin per rating point, the 1.7-point home effect and the 13.0-point holdout error.
- Pascal Institute: How the NFL Ratings Work