Jacksonville takes over the top spot in the Pascal Institute NFL Power Rankings after a 22–17 win at Cincinnati. The Jaguars (3–1) rate 113.9, just ahead of the Rams (113.5), Seattle (112.4) and San Francisco (112.3). Seattle, No. 1 every week since the preseason, slips to No. 3 despite a 30–23 win over the Chargers, because its league-best 2025 rating counts for less each week.
Week 4 moved the middle of the league more than the top. Atlanta jumped eight spots to No. 15 after a 45–24 Monday night win at New Orleans, 24 points better than we expected and the biggest surprise of the week, and the Saints fell nine spots to No. 26. Philadelphia fell five spots to No. 19 after a 24–20 home loss to the Rams, its second straight loss.
The top four are separated by 1.6 rating points, about half a point of expected margin. This week No. 4 San Francisco visits No. 3 Seattle, and No. 8 Buffalo plays at No. 2 Los Angeles on Monday night.
The Rankings After Week 4
| Trend | Rank | Last week | Team | Record | Rating | Change | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ | 1 | 2 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 3–1 | 113.9 | +1.1 | |
| ▲ | 2 | 4 | Los Angeles Rams | 2–2 | 113.5 | +1.4 | |
| ▼ | 3 | 1 | Seattle Seahawks | 3–1 | 112.4 | −2.7 | |
| ▼ | 4 | 3 | San Francisco 49ers | 4–0 | 112.3 | 0.0 | |
| ● | 5 | 5 | Kansas City Chiefs | 4–0 | 110.3 | +1.0 | |
| ▲ | 6 | 7 | Chicago Bears | 3–1 | 108.9 | +1.5 | |
| ▲ | 7 | 8 | Baltimore Ravens | 3–1 | 106.5 | +1.8 | |
| ▼ | 8 | 6 | Buffalo Bills | 3–1 | 106.5 | −2.1 | |
| ● | 9 | 9 | New England Patriots | 2–2 | 103.9 | +0.1 | |
| ▲ | 10 | 12 | Denver Broncos | 2–2 | 103.5 | +0.7 | |
| ▼ | 11 | 10 | Houston Texans | 0–4 | 103.2 | −0.4 | |
| ▲ | 12 | 13 | Minnesota Vikings | 4–0 | 101.4 | +0.9 | |
| ▼ | 13 | 11 | Detroit Lions | 2–2 | 100.8 | −2.1 | |
| ▲ | 14 | 16 | Carolina Panthers | 2–2 | 100.1 | +2.4 | |
| ▲ | 15 | 23 | Atlanta Falcons | 2–2 | 99.5 | +4.9 | |
| ▼ | 16 | 15 | Indianapolis Colts | 2–2 | 98.6 | +0.9 | |
| ▲ | 17 | 19 | Cincinnati Bengals | 2–2 | 97.2 | +0.7 | |
| ● | 18 | 18 | Green Bay Packers | 2–2 | 97.0 | +0.1 | |
| ▼ | 19 | 14 | Philadelphia Eagles | 2–2 | 95.8 | −3.8 | |
| ▲ | 20 | 21 | Los Angeles Chargers | 0–4 | 95.3 | −0.1 | |
| ▼ | 21 | 20 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 0–4 | 95.2 | −1.0 | |
| ▲ | 22 | 26 | Las Vegas Raiders | 3–1 | 95.1 | +1.1 | |
| ▼ | 23 | 22 | Dallas Cowboys | 2–2 | 94.7 | −0.4 | |
| ● | 24 | 24 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 2–2 | 94.7 | +0.5 | |
| ▲ | 25 | 27 | Cleveland Browns | 3–1 | 93.2 | +1.0 | |
| ▼ | 26 | 17 | New Orleans Saints | 1–3 | 92.6 | −4.7 | |
| ▲ | 27 | 29 | New York Giants | 3–1 | 92.6 | +1.6 | |
| ▼ | 28 | 25 | Arizona Cardinals | 1–3 | 92.2 | −1.9 | |
| ▼ | 29 | 28 | Washington Commanders | 1–3 | 90.3 | −1.7 | |
| ● | 30 | 30 | New York Jets | 1–3 | 89.8 | +0.7 | |
| ● | 31 | 31 | Miami Dolphins | 0–4 | 87.1 | −0.5 | |
| ● | 32 | 32 | Tennessee Titans | 0–4 | 85.5 | −1.0 |
Last week is the rank before Week 4 kicked off. Change is in rating points. Ties at one decimal are ordered by the unrounded rating. Team names link to the live NFL Team Ratings.
The rating is a forecast of strength, not a résumé, so a team can move up after a loss or down after a win. A team that did not play still moves when the teams it has already faced gain or lose rating.
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Who Moved and Why
Jacksonville Jaguars (▲ 2 to 1). The Jaguars won 22–17 at Cincinnati, almost exactly the margin we expected, and moved up because Seattle slipped.
Seattle Seahawks (▼ 1 to 3). Seattle beat the Chargers 30–23, about 2 points short of our expectation. Its rating still fell 2.7 points, the most of any team that won, because four games in, its 2025 rating counts for only a third.
Los Angeles Rams (▲ 4 to 2). The Rams won 24–20 at Philadelphia, a point better than expected.
Atlanta Falcons (▲ 23 to 15) and New Orleans Saints (▼ 17 to 26). We expected New Orleans to win at home by about 3 points. Atlanta won 45–24 on Monday night, a 24-point swing from expectation and the biggest of the week. The Falcons' rating rose 4.9 points and the Saints' fell 4.7, the largest moves of the week in each direction.
Philadelphia Eagles (▼ 14 to 19). The Eagles lost 24–20 at home to the Rams, close to our expectation, but their rating fell 3.8 points, the second-largest drop this week after New Orleans. A strong 2025 rating keeps losing weight to a weaker 2026 season.
Las Vegas Raiders (▲ 26 to 22). The Raiders lost 30–27 to unbeaten Kansas City, slightly better than we expected, and climbed four spots. At 3–1, they keep gaining as their weak 2025 rating fades.
Arizona Cardinals (▼ 25 to 28) and New York Giants (▲ 29 to 27). We rated the game in New York close to even, and the Giants won 36–24. The Giants are 3–1 but still rate No. 27, because the rating weighs per-play efficiency rather than wins.
Buffalo Bills (▼ 6 to 8). Buffalo lost 29–26 at home to New England after we made the Bills a 3-point favorite.
Houston Texans (▼ 10 to 11). Houston lost 34–30 at home to Dallas after we made the Texans a 5-point favorite. At 0–4 they still rate No. 11: three of the four losses were by 5 points or fewer, and their rating still carries a third of a strong 2025 season.
Indianapolis Colts (▼ 15 to 16). The Colts beat Washington 30–13 at a neutral site, 15 points better than we expected, the second-biggest surprise of the week. They still slipped one spot, because Atlanta jumped past them.
Week 5: What We Expect
Of the 32 teams, 30 play in 15 games and two are idle. Expected margins include 1.7 points of home field, and the favorite is the team expected to win after that adjustment. If the ratings are well calibrated, about 8.5 of the 15 favorites should win. Eleven games are within 3 points and close to a toss-up. Home field flips four picks, each a home team the neutral-field rating had as a slight underdog: Dallas Cowboys over Tampa Bay Buccaneers, New York Jets over Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers over Indianapolis Colts, Washington Commanders over New York Giants.
| Day | Game | Favorite | Expected margin with home field (pts) | Neutral-field margin (pts) | Win probability | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu, Oct. 8 | No. 21 Tampa Bay Buccaneers at No. 23 Dallas Cowboys | Dallas Cowboys | 1.5 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 0.2 | 55% | |
| Sun, Oct. 11 | No. 19 Philadelphia Eagles vs. No. 1 Jacksonville Jaguars (neutral site) | Jacksonville Jaguars | 6.6 | 6.6 | 69% | |
| Sun, Oct. 11 | No. 6 Chicago Bears at No. 18 Green Bay Packers | Chicago Bears | 2.6 | 4.3 | 58% | |
| Sun, Oct. 11 | No. 17 Cincinnati Bengals at No. 31 Miami Dolphins | Cincinnati Bengals | 2.0 | 3.7 | 56% | |
| Sun, Oct. 11 | No. 22 Las Vegas Raiders at No. 9 New England Patriots | New England Patriots | 4.8 | 3.1 | 65% | |
| Sun, Oct. 11 | No. 12 Minnesota Vikings at No. 26 New Orleans Saints | Minnesota Vikings | 1.5 | 3.2 | 54% | |
| Sun, Oct. 11 | No. 25 Cleveland Browns at No. 30 New York Jets | New York Jets | 0.5 | Cleveland Browns by 1.2 | 51% | |
| Sun, Oct. 11 | No. 16 Indianapolis Colts at No. 24 Pittsburgh Steelers | Pittsburgh Steelers | 0.3 | Indianapolis Colts by 1.4 | 51% | |
| Sun, Oct. 11 | No. 11 Houston Texans at No. 32 Tennessee Titans | Houston Texans | 4.7 | 6.4 | 64% | |
| Sun, Oct. 11 | No. 27 New York Giants at No. 29 Washington Commanders | Washington Commanders | 0.9 | New York Giants by 0.8 | 53% | |
| Sun, Oct. 11 | No. 10 Denver Broncos at No. 20 Los Angeles Chargers | Denver Broncos | 1.2 | 2.9 | 54% | |
| Sun, Oct. 11 | No. 13 Detroit Lions at No. 28 Arizona Cardinals | Detroit Lions | 1.4 | 3.1 | 54% | |
| Sun, Oct. 11 | No. 4 San Francisco 49ers at No. 3 Seattle Seahawks | Seattle Seahawks | 1.7 | 0.0 | 55% | |
| Sun, Oct. 11 | No. 7 Baltimore Ravens at No. 15 Atlanta Falcons | Baltimore Ravens | 0.8 | 2.5 | 53% | |
| Mon, Oct. 12 | No. 8 Buffalo Bills at No. 2 Los Angeles Rams | Los Angeles Rams | 4.2 | 2.5 | 63% |
Idle: No. 5 Kansas City Chiefs, No. 14 Carolina Panthers. Days are Eastern time. Ranks are this week's. Win probability is modeled, not measured.
These expectations are locked as of this edition. Next week's edition will score each game against its result: whether the favorite won, and how far the final margin landed from the expected one.
Methodology
Each edition uses two stored builds of the AnalytIQ NFL Team Rating (nfl-rating-v1): the build from before Week 4 kicked off (Oct. 1, 2026) and the build after all Week 4 games (Oct. 6, 2026). Ranks are computed among the 32 rated teams.
References and data
- AnalytIQ rating builds of nfl-rating-v1, Oct. 1, 2026 and Oct. 6, 2026: ratings and ranks.
- AnalytIQ game catalog: records, scores and the Week 5 schedule.
- AnalytIQ, NFL Rating v1 specification, Sprint 2 validation report and NFL rating-to-margin calibration: the rating definition, the 0.361-point margin per rating point, the 1.7-point home effect and the 13.0-point holdout error.
- Pascal Institute: How the NFL Ratings Work
- Philadelphia at Jacksonville on Oct. 11 is played in London at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, so it is treated as a neutral-site game. The AnalytIQ game catalog lists it as a Jacksonville home game; this edition overrides that (Philadelphia Eagles).