Notre Dame stays No. 1 in the Pascal Institute College Football Power Rankings after an open week. The Irish (6-1) did not play, and their rating rose 0.2 points to 119.8 as the ratings of teams they have already played moved. Miami climbs from No. 5 to No. 2 after a 52-23 win over Pittsburgh, 13.4 points better than we expected. Ohio State, also idle, stays at No. 3, rated 119.1 like the Hurricanes, and Indiana falls from No. 2 to No. 4 after winning only 13-6 at Michigan. Georgia, the third idle team in the top five, slips one spot to No. 5.
Road favorites had a hard week. Of the 15 games we previewed with an expectation, favorites won 10, close to the 10.4 implied by the probabilities we published, and all five underdogs that won were playing at home. The biggest upset was Cincinnati, a 27% underdog, beating Texas Tech 37-24. Illinois beat Oregon 21-10, Minnesota beat Iowa 13-10, UCF beat BYU 39-31 and South Carolina beat Tennessee 27-24. The scorecard below lists every game.
The biggest move in the Top 25 belongs to Arizona, up 15 spots to No. 17 after beating Iowa State 39-3. Kentucky and Louisville also enter the Top 25, replacing Iowa, Missouri and USC. USC falls 12 spots to No. 31 after a 24-7 loss at Wisconsin, and Iowa falls 11 spots to No. 27 after its 13-10 loss at Minnesota. Missouri was idle and slips two spots to No. 26.
The top six are separated by 2.0 rating points, about 2.3 points of expected margin on a neutral field. Alabama, LSU, Tennessee, Texas A&M and Kentucky are idle this week. No. 17 Arizona visits No. 15 Texas Tech, No. 24 Florida and No. 5 Georgia meet on a neutral field, and No. 3 Ohio State goes to No. 31 USC. No. 2 Miami plays at No. 54 North Carolina, and No. 1 Notre Dame meets No. 88 Navy on a neutral field.
Last Week's Expectations, Scored
Favorites won 10 of 15 games, against about 10.4 expected from the win probabilities we published. Final margins landed an average of 10.5 points from our expectations, compared with the rating's typical error of 15.9 points. The biggest upset was Cincinnati over Texas Tech, which we had given a 27% chance.
| Game | Favorite | Expected margin (pts) | Result | Favorite won? | Miss (pts) | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No. 13 Texas Tech at No. 61 Cincinnati | Texas Tech | 9.9 | Cincinnati 37-24 | No | -22.9 | |
| No. 12 Oregon at No. 50 Illinois | Oregon | 8.2 | Illinois 21-10 | No | -19.2 | |
| No. 16 Iowa at No. 66 Minnesota | Iowa | 9.5 | Minnesota 13-10 | No | -12.5 | |
| No. 14 BYU at No. 55 UCF | BYU | 8.0 | UCF 39-31 | No | -16.0 | |
| No. 60 Michigan State at No. 17 UCLA | UCLA | 11.9 | UCLA 28-10 | Yes | +6.1 | |
| No. 29 Houston at No. 8 Utah | Utah | 9.8 | Utah 21-13 | Yes | -1.8 | |
| No. 7 LSU at No. 27 Auburn | LSU | 5.9 | LSU 38-17 | Yes | +15.1 | |
| No. 36 Pittsburgh at No. 5 Miami | Miami | 15.6 | Miami 52-23 | Yes | +13.4 | |
| No. 2 Indiana at No. 40 Michigan | Indiana | 11.9 | Indiana 13-6 | Yes | -4.9 | |
| No. 79 Rutgers at No. 18 Northwestern | Northwestern | 16.3 | Northwestern 42-14 | Yes | +11.7 | |
| No. 23 Texas A&M at No. 6 Alabama | Alabama | 12.0 | Alabama 31-20 | Yes | -1.0 | |
| No. 22 Oklahoma at No. 35 Mississippi State | Oklahoma | 0.1 | Oklahoma 23-15 | Yes | +7.9 | |
| No. 11 Tennessee at No. 25 South Carolina | Tennessee | 2.5 | South Carolina 27-24 | No | -5.5 | |
| No. 10 Ole Miss at No. 9 Texas | Texas | 3.5 | Texas 34-27 | Yes | +3.5 | |
| No. 19 USC at No. 30 Wisconsin | Wisconsin | 0.6 | Wisconsin 24-7 | Yes | +16.4 |
Expected margins are the locked values from the Week 8 edition, from the favorite's view, including home field. Miss is the actual margin minus the expected margin; positive means the favorite did better than expected.
The Top 25 After Week 8
| Trend | Rank | Last week | Team | Record | Rating | Change | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ● | 1 | 1 | Notre Dame | 6-1 | 119.8 | +0.2 | |
| ▲ | 2 | 5 | Miami | 7-0 | 119.1 | +0.9 | |
| ● | 3 | 3 | Ohio State | 6-1 | 119.1 | +0.1 | |
| ▼ | 4 | 2 | Indiana | 7-1 | 118.4 | -1.0 | |
| ▼ | 5 | 4 | Georgia | 6-1 | 118.3 | -0.1 | |
| ● | 6 | 6 | Alabama | 6-2 | 117.7 | 0.0 | |
| ● | 7 | 7 | LSU | 6-2 | 117.5 | +0.6 | |
| ▲ | 8 | 9 | Texas | 5-2 | 115.3 | +0.6 | |
| ▼ | 9 | 8 | Utah | 7-0 | 114.1 | -0.7 | |
| ● | 10 | 10 | Ole Miss | 5-2 | 113.6 | -0.4 | |
| ● | 11 | 11 | Tennessee | 6-2 | 113.0 | -0.9 | |
| ● | 12 | 12 | Oregon | 4-3 | 111.7 | -1.9 | |
| ▲ | 13 | 14 | BYU | 6-1 | 111.2 | -1.4 | |
| ▲ | 14 | 15 | Nebraska | 5-2 | 111.1 | -0.5 | |
| ▼ | 15 | 13 | Texas Tech | 6-1 | 110.7 | -2.1 | |
| ▲ | 16 | 22 | Oklahoma | 4-3 | 110.2 | +0.8 | |
| ▲ | 17 | 32 | Arizona | 6-1 | 110.1 | +2.4 | |
| ● | 18 | 18 | Northwestern | 6-1 | 110.1 | +0.2 | |
| ▲ | 19 | 25 | South Carolina | 4-3 | 110.0 | +0.8 | |
| ▼ | 20 | 17 | UCLA | 7-0 | 110.0 | +0.1 | |
| ▲ | 21 | 23 | Texas A&M | 4-4 | 109.8 | +0.4 | |
| ▲ | 22 | 28 | Kentucky | 7-1 | 109.7 | +0.7 | |
| ▼ | 23 | 20 | Wake Forest | 6-1 | 109.6 | 0.0 | |
| ▼ | 24 | 21 | Florida | 5-2 | 109.6 | 0.0 | |
| ▲ | 25 | 26 | Louisville | 4-3 | 109.4 | +0.2 |
Dropped out: No. 16 Iowa (now No. 27), No. 19 USC (now No. 31), No. 24 Missouri (now No. 26). Next five: Missouri 109.1, Iowa 109.1, Wisconsin 109.1, Auburn 108.5, Houston 108.5. Last week is the rank before Week 8 kicked off. Change is in rating points. Ties at one decimal are ordered by the unrounded rating. Team names link to the live College Football Team Ratings.
The rating is a forecast of strength, not a résumé, so a team can move up after a loss or down after a win. A team that did not play still moves when the teams it has already faced gain or lose rating.
Pascal Ratings Weekly · Newsletter
Get Pascal Ratings Weekly
Each week we send the Pascal Ratings, the latest Power Rankings, and the results of last week's published forecasts, scored against what happened, misses included. New Pascal research arrives in the same email. It is free, and every email has a one-click unsubscribe.
Who Moved and Why
Miami (▲ 5 to 2). We expected Miami to beat Pittsburgh by 15.6 points at home, with an 84% chance of winning. The Hurricanes won 52-23, 13.4 points better than expected, and their rating rose 0.9 points to 119.1. Unbeaten at 7-0, they move up three spots, just ahead of idle Ohio State.
Indiana (▼ 2 to 4). Indiana was an 11.9-point favorite at Michigan, with a 77% chance of winning. It won 13-6, 4.9 points short of that, and its rating fell 1.0 point to 118.4. The Hoosiers (7-1) drop two spots, behind Miami and Ohio State.
Texas Tech (▼ 13 to 15) and Cincinnati (▲ 61 to 52). Texas Tech was a 9.9-point favorite at Cincinnati, with a 73% chance of winning, which makes this the biggest upset of the week. Cincinnati won 37-24, 22.9 points better than expected for the Bearcats. Texas Tech's rating fell 2.1 points, the largest drop of any team in this week's Top 25, and it slips two spots.
Arizona (▲ 32 to 17) and Iowa State (▼ 33 to 47). With home field, the ratings before the game made Arizona a 3.2-point favorite over Iowa State. Arizona won 39-3, 32.8 points better than expected, and its rating rose 2.4 points, the most of any Top 25 team. The Wildcats (6-1) jump 15 spots into the Top 25.
USC (▼ 19 to 31) and Wisconsin (▲ 30 to 28). Wisconsin was a 0.6-point favorite at home, with a 52% chance of winning, so we saw this game as close to even. Wisconsin won 24-7, 16.4 points better than expected. USC falls 12 spots and out of the Top 25, the largest drop of any team that started the week in it.
BYU (▲ 14 to 13) and UCF (▲ 55 to 50). BYU was an 8.0-point favorite at UCF, with a 69% chance of winning. UCF won 39-31 and handed the Cougars their first loss. BYU's rating fell 1.4 points, but it moves up one spot because Texas Tech fell further.
Oregon (● 12) and Illinois (▲ 50 to 39). Oregon was an 8.2-point favorite at Illinois, with a 70% chance of winning. Illinois won 21-10, and Oregon's rating fell 1.9 points. The Ducks (4-3) hold No. 12 because BYU, Nebraska and Texas Tech, the teams just behind them, lost rating too.
South Carolina (▲ 25 to 19) and Tennessee (● 11). Tennessee was a 2.5-point favorite at South Carolina, with a 56% chance of winning. South Carolina won 27-24 and climbs six spots to No. 19. Tennessee's rating fell 0.9 points, but it holds No. 11.
Week 9: What We Expect
Of this week's Top 25, 20 teams play in 16 games and five are idle. Expected margins include 2.7 points of home field, and the favorite is the team expected to win after that adjustment. If the ratings are well calibrated, about 12.2 of the 16 favorites should win. One game is within 3 points and close to a toss-up.
| Day | Game | Favorite | Expected margin with home field (pts) | Neutral-field margin (pts) | Win probability | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, Oct. 31 | No. 1 Notre Dame vs. No. 88 Navy (neutral site) | Notre Dame | 27.1 | 27.1 | 96% | |
| Sat, Oct. 31 | No. 17 Arizona at No. 15 Texas Tech | Texas Tech | 3.3 | 0.6 | 58% | |
| Sat, Oct. 31 | No. 29 Auburn at No. 10 Ole Miss | Ole Miss | 8.4 | 5.7 | 70% | |
| Sat, Oct. 31 | No. 98 Stanford at No. 25 Louisville | Louisville | 20.4 | 17.7 | 90% | |
| Sat, Oct. 31 | No. 63 Arizona State at No. 13 BYU | BYU | 13.9 | 11.2 | 81% | |
| Sat, Oct. 31 | No. 24 Florida vs. No. 5 Georgia (neutral site) | Georgia | 9.8 | 9.8 | 73% | |
| Sat, Oct. 31 | No. 61 Minnesota at No. 4 Indiana | Indiana | 21.2 | 18.5 | 91% | |
| Sat, Oct. 31 | No. 18 Northwestern at No. 12 Oregon | Oregon | 4.5 | 1.8 | 61% | |
| Sat, Oct. 31 | No. 9 Utah at No. 52 Cincinnati | Utah | 8.6 | 11.3 | 71% | |
| Sat, Oct. 31 | No. 53 Virginia at No. 23 Wake Forest | Wake Forest | 8.8 | 6.1 | 71% | |
| Sat, Oct. 31 | No. 19 South Carolina at No. 16 Oklahoma | Oklahoma | 2.9 | 0.2 | 57% | |
| Sat, Oct. 31 | No. 100 Nevada at No. 20 UCLA | UCLA | 21.3 | 18.6 | 91% | |
| Sat, Oct. 31 | No. 2 Miami at No. 54 North Carolina | Miami | 14.8 | 17.5 | 82% | |
| Sat, Oct. 31 | No. 36 Mississippi State at No. 8 Texas | Texas | 11.9 | 9.2 | 77% | |
| Sat, Oct. 31 | No. 3 Ohio State at No. 31 USC | Ohio State | 9.4 | 12.1 | 72% | |
| Sat, Oct. 31 | No. 49 Washington at No. 14 Nebraska | Nebraska | 10.3 | 7.6 | 74% |
Idle: No. 6 Alabama, No. 7 LSU, No. 11 Tennessee, No. 21 Texas A&M, No. 22 Kentucky. Days are Eastern time. Ranks are this week's. Win probability is modeled, not measured.
These expectations are locked as of this edition. Next week's edition will score each game against its result: whether the favorite won, and how far the final margin landed from the expected one.
Methodology
Each edition uses two stored builds of the Pascal Rating for college football (cfb-rating-v1): the build from before Week 8 kicked off (Oct. 20, 2026) and the build after all Week 8 games (Oct. 26, 2026). Ranks are computed among the 138 rated teams.
See how the ratings have been scored in public, season by season and in retrospective studies, in the Track Record.
References and data
- Pascal Rating builds of cfb-rating-v1, Oct. 20, 2026 and Oct. 26, 2026: ratings and ranks.
- AnalytIQ game catalog: records, scores and the Week 9 schedule. Records include games against FCS opponents.
- AnalytIQ, College Football Rating v1 specification, Sprint 2 validation report and CFB home-edge calibration: the rating definition, the 2.7-point home effect refit on 2020-2024 games and tested on 2025, and the 15.9-point holdout error.
- Pascal Institute: How the College Football Ratings Work