Notre Dame stays No. 1 in the Pascal Institute College Football Power Rankings despite a 28–24 loss at BYU. The Irish (6–1) fell 1.6 rating points to 119.6, but the teams behind them had hard weeks too. Indiana moves up from No. 4 to No. 2 after losing 19–15 at home to Ohio State, which climbs from No. 6 to No. 3. Georgia falls from No. 2 to No. 4 after a 27–24 home loss to Auburn, and Alabama falls from No. 3 to No. 6 after losing 26–10 at Tennessee.
Favorites struggled again. Of the 13 games we previewed with an expectation, favorites won 7, against about 9.4 expected from the probabilities we published, and six underdogs won outright. The biggest upset was Auburn, a 13% underdog at Georgia. The scorecard below lists every game.
The biggest moves in the Top 25 were Wake Forest, up nine spots to No. 20 after a 41–7 win at California, and Missouri, down 12 spots to No. 24 after losing 31–3 at Ole Miss. Wake Forest and Florida are new to the Top 25, replacing Louisville and Mississippi State.
The top six are separated by 1.9 rating points, about 2.1 points of expected margin on a neutral field. Notre Dame, Ohio State and Georgia are idle this week. No. 10 Ole Miss visits No. 9 Texas, No. 23 Texas A&M plays at No. 6 Alabama, and No. 2 Indiana goes to No. 40 Michigan.
Last Week's Expectations, Scored
Favorites won 7 of 13 games, against about 9.4 expected from the win probabilities we published. Final margins landed an average of 14.0 points from our expectations, compared with the rating's typical error of 15.9 points. The biggest upset was Auburn over Georgia, which we had given a 13% chance.
| Game | Favorite | Expected margin (pts) | Result | Favorite won? | Miss (pts) | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No. 6 Ohio State at No. 4 Indiana | Indiana | 3.7 | Ohio State 19–15 | No | −7.7 | |
| No. 21 Mississippi State at No. 9 LSU | LSU | 8.4 | LSU 31–0 | Yes | +22.6 | |
| No. 19 Northwestern at No. 62 Michigan State | Northwestern | 7.3 | Northwestern 24–21 | Yes | −4.3 | |
| No. 27 Florida at No. 8 Texas | Texas | 9.8 | Florida 27–24 | No | −12.8 | |
| No. 35 Auburn at No. 2 Georgia | Georgia | 17.7 | Auburn 27–24 | No | −20.7 | |
| No. 12 Missouri at No. 14 Ole Miss | Ole Miss | 2.3 | Ole Miss 31–3 | Yes | +25.7 | |
| No. 3 Alabama at No. 15 Tennessee | Alabama | 7.6 | Tennessee 26–10 | No | −23.6 | |
| No. 65 Arizona State at No. 11 Texas Tech | Texas Tech | 15.4 | Texas Tech 53–25 | Yes | +12.6 | |
| No. 38 Florida State at No. 5 Miami | Miami | 16.7 | Miami 43–35 | Yes | −8.7 | |
| No. 1 Notre Dame at No. 16 BYU | Notre Dame | 8.6 | BYU 28–24 | No | −12.6 | |
| No. 31 Kentucky at No. 18 Oklahoma | Oklahoma | 5.6 | Kentucky 21–13 | No | −13.6 | |
| No. 24 Louisville at No. 77 Syracuse | Louisville | 9.9 | Louisville 34–26 | Yes | −1.9 | |
| No. 7 Utah at No. 72 Colorado | Utah | 17.7 | Utah 27–24 | Yes | −14.7 |
Expected margins are the locked values from the Week 7 edition, from the favorite's view, including home field. Miss is the actual margin minus the expected margin; positive means the favorite did better than expected.
The Top 25 After Week 7
| Trend | Rank | Last week | Team | Record | Rating | Change | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ● | 1 | 1 | Notre Dame | 6–1 | 119.6 | −1.6 | |
| ▲ | 2 | 4 | Indiana | 6–1 | 119.4 | −0.1 | |
| ▲ | 3 | 6 | Ohio State | 6–1 | 119.0 | +0.3 | |
| ▼ | 4 | 2 | Georgia | 6–1 | 118.4 | −2.2 | |
| ● | 5 | 5 | Miami | 6–0 | 118.2 | −0.8 | |
| ▼ | 6 | 3 | Alabama | 5–2 | 117.7 | −2.8 | |
| ▲ | 7 | 9 | LSU | 5–2 | 116.8 | +2.2 | |
| ▼ | 8 | 7 | Utah | 6–0 | 114.9 | −2.1 | |
| ▼ | 9 | 8 | Texas | 4–2 | 114.7 | −0.4 | |
| ▲ | 10 | 14 | Ole Miss | 5–1 | 114.0 | +2.6 | |
| ▲ | 11 | 15 | Tennessee | 6–1 | 113.9 | +2.5 | |
| ▼ | 12 | 10 | Oregon | 4–2 | 113.6 | +0.3 | |
| ▼ | 13 | 11 | Texas Tech | 6–0 | 112.8 | +0.8 | |
| ▲ | 14 | 16 | BYU | 6–0 | 112.6 | +1.5 | |
| ▼ | 15 | 13 | Nebraska | 5–2 | 111.6 | −0.1 | |
| ▲ | 16 | 17 | Iowa | 5–1 | 111.1 | 0.0 | |
| ▲ | 17 | 22 | UCLA | 6–0 | 109.9 | +0.4 | |
| ▲ | 18 | 19 | Northwestern | 5–1 | 109.9 | −0.5 | |
| ▲ | 19 | 23 | USC | 6–1 | 109.8 | +0.4 | |
| ▲ | 20 | 29 | Wake Forest | 6–1 | 109.6 | +0.9 | |
| ▲ | 21 | 27 | Florida | 5–2 | 109.5 | +0.8 | |
| ▼ | 22 | 18 | Oklahoma | 3–3 | 109.5 | −1.4 | |
| ▲ | 23 | 25 | Texas A&M | 4–3 | 109.4 | +0.3 | |
| ▼ | 24 | 12 | Missouri | 5–2 | 109.3 | −2.5 | |
| ▼ | 25 | 20 | South Carolina | 3–3 | 109.3 | −0.5 |
Dropped out: No. 21 Mississippi State (now No. 35), No. 24 Louisville (now No. 26). Next five: Louisville 109.2, Auburn 109.2, Kentucky 109.1, Houston 108.6, Wisconsin 107.9. Last week is the rank before Week 7 kicked off. Change is in rating points. Ties at one decimal are ordered by the unrounded rating. Team names link to the live College Football Team Ratings.
The rating is a forecast of strength, not a résumé, so a team can move up after a loss or down after a win. A team that did not play still moves when the teams it has already faced gain or lose rating.
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Who Moved and Why
Notre Dame (● 1) and BYU (▲ 16 to 14). We expected the Irish to win at BYU by 8.6 points, with a 71% chance of winning. BYU won 28–24. Notre Dame's rating fell 1.6 points, but at 119.6 it stays just ahead of Indiana at 119.4. The unbeaten Cougars move up two spots.
Ohio State (▲ 6 to 3) and Indiana (▲ 4 to 2). Indiana was a 3.7-point favorite at home, with a 59% chance of winning. Ohio State won 19–15 and climbs three spots. Indiana still moves up two: its rating dipped 0.1 points, while Georgia and Alabama lost more after their own defeats.
Georgia (▼ 2 to 4) and Auburn (▲ 35 to 27). Georgia was a 17.7-point favorite at home, with an 87% chance of winning, which makes this the biggest upset of the week. Auburn won 27–24. The Bulldogs fall two spots and the Tigers climb eight, to No. 27.
Tennessee (▲ 15 to 11) and Alabama (▼ 3 to 6). Alabama was a 7.6-point favorite on the road. Tennessee won 26–10, 23.6 points better than expected for the Volunteers. They climb four spots and the Crimson Tide fall three.
Ole Miss (▲ 14 to 10) and Missouri (▼ 12 to 24). With home field, we expected Ole Miss to beat Missouri by 2.3 points. It won 31–3, 25.7 points better than expected, the largest gap of any game we previewed. Ole Miss moves into the top 10, and Missouri's 12-spot drop is the largest in the Top 25.
Florida (▲ 27 to 21) and Texas (▼ 8 to 9). Texas was a 9.8-point favorite at home, with a 73% chance of winning. Florida won 27–24 and returns to the Top 25, and Texas slips one spot.
Wake Forest (▲ 29 to 20). We expected Wake Forest to win at California by 9.2 points. It won 41–7, 24.8 points better than expected, and jumps nine spots into the Top 25.
LSU (▲ 9 to 7) and Mississippi State (▼ 21 to 35). We expected LSU to beat Mississippi State by 8.4 points at home. LSU won 31–0, 22.6 points better than expected. The Tigers move up two spots, and the Bulldogs fall 14 and out of the Top 25.
Week 8: What We Expect
Of this week's Top 25, 18 teams play in 15 games and seven are idle. Expected margins include 2.7 points of home field, and the favorite is the team expected to win after that adjustment. If the ratings are well calibrated, about 10.4 of the 15 favorites should win. Three games are within 3 points and close to a toss-up. Home field flips one pick: Wisconsin is a 0.6-point favorite over USC, which the neutral-field rating favors by 2.1.
| Day | Game | Favorite | Expected margin with home field (pts) | Neutral-field margin (pts) | Win probability | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, Oct. 24 | No. 13 Texas Tech at No. 61 Cincinnati | Texas Tech | 9.9 | 12.6 | 73% | |
| Sat, Oct. 24 | No. 12 Oregon at No. 50 Illinois | Oregon | 8.2 | 10.9 | 70% | |
| Sat, Oct. 24 | No. 16 Iowa at No. 66 Minnesota | Iowa | 9.5 | 12.2 | 72% | |
| Sat, Oct. 24 | No. 14 BYU at No. 55 UCF | BYU | 8.0 | 10.7 | 69% | |
| Sat, Oct. 24 | No. 60 Michigan State at No. 17 UCLA | UCLA | 11.9 | 9.2 | 77% | |
| Sat, Oct. 24 | No. 29 Houston at No. 8 Utah | Utah | 9.8 | 7.1 | 73% | |
| Sat, Oct. 24 | No. 7 LSU at No. 27 Auburn | LSU | 5.9 | 8.6 | 64% | |
| Sat, Oct. 24 | No. 36 Pittsburgh at No. 5 Miami | Miami | 15.6 | 12.9 | 84% | |
| Sat, Oct. 24 | No. 2 Indiana at No. 40 Michigan | Indiana | 11.9 | 14.6 | 77% | |
| Sat, Oct. 24 | No. 79 Rutgers at No. 18 Northwestern | Northwestern | 16.3 | 13.6 | 85% | |
| Sat, Oct. 24 | No. 23 Texas A&M at No. 6 Alabama | Alabama | 12.0 | 9.3 | 78% | |
| Sat, Oct. 24 | No. 22 Oklahoma at No. 35 Mississippi State | Oklahoma | 0.1 | 2.8 | 50% | |
| Sat, Oct. 24 | No. 11 Tennessee at No. 25 South Carolina | Tennessee | 2.5 | 5.2 | 56% | |
| Sat, Oct. 24 | No. 10 Ole Miss at No. 9 Texas | Texas | 3.5 | 0.8 | 59% | |
| Sat, Oct. 24 | No. 19 USC at No. 30 Wisconsin | Wisconsin | 0.6 | USC by 2.1 | 52% |
Idle: No. 1 Notre Dame, No. 3 Ohio State, No. 4 Georgia, No. 15 Nebraska, No. 20 Wake Forest, No. 21 Florida, No. 24 Missouri. Days are Eastern time. Ranks are this week's. Win probability is modeled, not measured.
These expectations are locked as of this edition. Next week's edition will score each game against its result: whether the favorite won, and how far the final margin landed from the expected one.
Methodology
Each edition uses two stored builds of the Pascal Rating for college football (cfb-rating-v1): the build from before Week 7 kicked off (Oct. 13, 2026) and the build after all Week 7 games (Oct. 18, 2026). Ranks are computed among the 138 rated teams.
See how the ratings have been scored in public, season by season and in retrospective studies, in the Track Record.
References and data
- Pascal Rating builds of cfb-rating-v1, Oct. 13, 2026 and Oct. 18, 2026: ratings and ranks.
- AnalytIQ game catalog: records, scores and the Week 8 schedule. Records include games against FCS opponents.
- AnalytIQ, College Football Rating v1 specification, Sprint 2 validation report and CFB home-edge calibration: the rating definition, the 2.7-point home effect refit on 2020–2024 games and tested on 2025, and the 15.9-point holdout error.
- Pascal Institute: How the College Football Ratings Work
- Six of this week's games had no kickoff time when this edition was prepared: Texas Tech at Cincinnati, Oregon at Illinois, Iowa at Minnesota, BYU at UCF, Michigan State at UCLA and Houston at Utah. They are listed on Saturday, Oct. 24, their scheduled date.