Notre Dame is back at No. 1 in the Pascal Institute College Football Power Rankings after a 58–7 win over Stanford. The Irish (6–0) moved up from No. 3 with a rating of 121.2, beating our expected margin by 19 points. Georgia climbs from No. 4 to No. 2 after winning 20–17 at Alabama, and the Crimson Tide fall from No. 1 to No. 3. Georgia and Alabama both rate 120.5; Georgia is ahead on the unrounded rating.
Last week was hard on favorites. Of the 18 games we previewed, favorites won 10, against about 12.6 expected from the probabilities we published, and eight underdogs won outright. The scorecard below lists every game.
The biggest moves in the Top 25 were Louisville, up 12 spots to No. 24 after beating Florida State 44–20, and Texas A&M, down 12 spots to No. 25 after losing 27–6 at Missouri. South Carolina, UCLA, USC and Louisville are new to the Top 25, replacing Florida, Pittsburgh, Florida State and Penn State.
The top six are separated by 2.5 rating points, under 3 points of expected margin on a neutral field. This week No. 6 Ohio State visits No. 4 Indiana, No. 1 Notre Dame plays at No. 16 BYU, and No. 3 Alabama goes to No. 15 Tennessee.
Last Week's Expectations, Scored
Favorites won 10 of 18 games, against about 12.6 expected from the win probabilities we published. Final margins landed an average of 12.3 points from our expectations, compared with the rating's typical error of 15.9 points. The biggest upset was North Carolina over Pittsburgh, which we had given a 26% chance.
| Game | Favorite | Expected margin (pts) | Result | Favorite won? | Miss (pts) | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No. 24 Florida State at No. 36 Louisville | Florida State | 0.8 | Louisville 44–20 | No | −24.8 | |
| No. 15 Iowa at No. 46 Washington | Iowa | 4.6 | Iowa 41–24 | Yes | +12.4 | |
| No. 30 Iowa State at No. 19 BYU | BYU | 3.7 | BYU 24–10 | Yes | +10.3 | |
| No. 13 Texas A&M at No. 18 Missouri | Missouri | 0.4 | Missouri 27–6 | Yes | +20.6 | |
| No. 2 Indiana at No. 16 Nebraska | Indiana | 9.5 | Indiana 20–17 | Yes | −6.5 | |
| No. 59 North Carolina at No. 21 Pittsburgh | Pittsburgh | 10.1 | North Carolina 21–17 | No | −14.1 | |
| No. 134 Ball State at No. 12 Northwestern | Northwestern | 33.5 | Northwestern 45–14 | Yes | −2.5 | |
| No. 29 South Carolina at No. 17 Florida | Florida | 3.9 | South Carolina 38–19 | No | −22.9 | |
| No. 104 Stanford at No. 3 Notre Dame | Notre Dame | 32.3 | Notre Dame 58–7 | Yes | +18.7 | |
| No. 7 Texas vs. No. 25 Oklahoma (neutral site) | Texas | 8.5 | Oklahoma 27–24 | No | −11.5 | |
| No. 28 UCLA at No. 10 Oregon | Oregon | 7.9 | UCLA 17–15 | No | −9.9 | |
| No. 20 Ole Miss at No. 51 Vanderbilt | Ole Miss | 4.3 | Ole Miss 52–17 | Yes | +30.7 | |
| No. 11 Tennessee at No. 62 Arkansas | Tennessee | 10.9 | Tennessee 24–17 | Yes | −3.9 | |
| No. 79 Maryland at No. 5 Ohio State | Ohio State | 26.0 | Ohio State 45–16 | Yes | +3.0 | |
| No. 9 LSU at No. 33 Kentucky | LSU | 7.1 | Kentucky 35–34 | No | −8.1 | |
| No. 4 Georgia at No. 1 Alabama | Alabama | 3.9 | Georgia 20–17 | No | −6.9 | |
| No. 27 USC at No. 23 Penn State | Penn State | 2.3 | USC 31–23 | No | −10.3 | |
| No. 42 Kansas at No. 8 Utah | Utah | 13.4 | Utah 41–24 | Yes | +3.6 |
Expected margins are the locked values from the Week 6 edition, from the favorite's view, including home field. Miss is the actual margin minus the expected margin; positive means the favorite did better than expected.
The Top 25 After Week 6
| Trend | Rank | Last week | Team | Record | Rating | Change | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ | 1 | 3 | Notre Dame | 6–0 | 121.2 | +1.3 | |
| ▲ | 2 | 4 | Georgia | 6–0 | 120.5 | +1.2 | |
| ▼ | 3 | 1 | Alabama | 5–1 | 120.5 | −0.8 | |
| ▼ | 4 | 2 | Indiana | 6–0 | 119.6 | −0.7 | |
| ▲ | 5 | 6 | Miami | 5–0 | 119.1 | +0.3 | |
| ▼ | 6 | 5 | Ohio State | 5–1 | 118.7 | −0.6 | |
| ▲ | 7 | 8 | Utah | 5–0 | 116.9 | +0.3 | |
| ▼ | 8 | 7 | Texas | 4–1 | 115.1 | −1.6 | |
| ● | 9 | 9 | LSU | 4–2 | 114.6 | −0.8 | |
| ● | 10 | 10 | Oregon | 3–2 | 113.3 | −0.6 | |
| ▲ | 11 | 14 | Texas Tech | 5–0 | 112.0 | +0.9 | |
| ▲ | 12 | 18 | Missouri | 5–1 | 111.8 | +1.7 | |
| ▲ | 13 | 16 | Nebraska | 5–1 | 111.7 | +1.3 | |
| ▲ | 14 | 20 | Ole Miss | 4–1 | 111.4 | +1.9 | |
| ▼ | 15 | 11 | Tennessee | 5–1 | 111.4 | −0.9 | |
| ▲ | 16 | 19 | BYU | 5–0 | 111.1 | +1.4 | |
| ▼ | 17 | 15 | Iowa | 5–1 | 111.1 | +0.7 | |
| ▲ | 18 | 25 | Oklahoma | 3–2 | 110.9 | +1.8 | |
| ▼ | 19 | 12 | Northwestern | 4–1 | 110.4 | −1.4 | |
| ▲ | 20 | 29 | South Carolina | 3–3 | 109.8 | +1.7 | |
| ▲ | 21 | 22 | Mississippi State | 4–1 | 109.5 | +0.1 | |
| ▲ | 22 | 28 | UCLA | 5–0 | 109.5 | +1.1 | |
| ▲ | 23 | 27 | USC | 6–1 | 109.4 | +0.6 | |
| ▲ | 24 | 36 | Louisville | 3–3 | 109.2 | +2.2 | |
| ▼ | 25 | 13 | Texas A&M | 3–3 | 109.1 | −2.0 |
Dropped out: No. 17 Florida (now No. 27), No. 21 Pittsburgh (now No. 32), No. 23 Penn State (now No. 30), No. 24 Florida State (now No. 38). Next five: Wisconsin 109.0, Florida 108.7, Houston 108.7, Wake Forest 108.7, Penn State 108.4. Last week is the rank before Week 6 kicked off. Change is in rating points. Ties at one decimal are ordered by the unrounded rating. Team names link to the live College Football Team Ratings.
The rating is a forecast of strength, not a résumé, so a team can move up after a loss or down after a win. A team that did not play still moves when the teams it has already faced gain or lose rating.
Pascal Ratings Weekly · Newsletter
Get Pascal Ratings Weekly
Each week we send the Pascal Ratings, the latest Power Rankings, and the results of last week's published forecasts, scored against what happened, misses included. New Pascal research arrives in the same email. It is free, and every email has a one-click unsubscribe.
Who Moved and Why
Notre Dame (▲ 3 to 1). We expected the Irish to beat No. 104 Stanford by about 32 points at home. They won 58–7, 18.7 points better than expected.
Georgia (▲ 4 to 2) and Alabama (▼ 1 to 3). Alabama was a 3.9-point favorite at home, with a 60% chance of winning. Georgia won 20–17. The Bulldogs move up two spots, the Crimson Tide fall two, and the teams now share a 120.5 rating.
Indiana (▼ 2 to 4) and Nebraska (▲ 16 to 13). Indiana won 20–17 at Nebraska, but we expected a 9.5-point win. The rating rewards margin against expectation, not the win itself, so the unbeaten Hoosiers fall two spots and Nebraska climbs three after a close loss.
Louisville (▲ 36 to 24) and Florida State (▼ 24 to 38). Florida State was a 0.8-point favorite on the road. Louisville won 44–20, a 24.8-point swing from expectation. The Cardinals enter the Top 25 and the Seminoles fall out.
Missouri (▲ 18 to 12) and Texas A&M (▼ 13 to 25). With home field, we rated the game a toss-up, Missouri by 0.4 points. Missouri won 27–6. The Tigers climb six spots and the Aggies fall 12, to the last place in the Top 25.
Ole Miss (▲ 20 to 14). We expected Ole Miss to win at Vanderbilt by 4.3 points. It won 52–17, 30.7 points better than expected, the largest gap over expectation of any game we previewed.
Oklahoma (▲ 25 to 18) and Texas (▼ 7 to 8). Texas was an 8.5-point favorite on a neutral field. Oklahoma won 27–24, and the Sooners move up seven spots while Texas slips one.
South Carolina (▲ 29 to 20) and Florida (▼ 17 to 27). Florida was a 3.9-point favorite at home and lost 38–19. South Carolina jumps nine spots into the Top 25, and Florida drops out.
Northwestern (▼ 12 to 19). Northwestern beat Ball State 45–14, 2.5 points short of the 33.5-point margin we expected, and fell seven spots. A win close to expectation adds little, and teams Northwestern had already beaten, including Penn State, lost rating this week.
Week 7: What We Expect
Of this week's Top 25, 18 teams play in 13 games and six are idle. Expected margins include 2.7 points of home field, and the favorite is the team expected to win after that adjustment. If the ratings are well calibrated, about 9.4 of the 13 favorites should win. One game is within 3 points and close to a toss-up. Home field flips one pick: Ole Miss is a 2.3-point favorite over Missouri, which the neutral-field rating favors by 0.4.
| Day | Game | Favorite | Expected margin with home field (pts) | Neutral-field margin (pts) | Win probability | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat, Oct. 17 | No. 6 Ohio State at No. 4 Indiana | Indiana | 3.7 | 1.0 | 59% | |
| Sat, Oct. 17 | No. 21 Mississippi State at No. 9 LSU | LSU | 8.4 | 5.7 | 70% | |
| Sat, Oct. 17 | No. 19 Northwestern at No. 62 Michigan State | Northwestern | 7.3 | 10.0 | 68% | |
| Sat, Oct. 17 | No. 27 Florida at No. 8 Texas | Texas | 9.8 | 7.1 | 73% | |
| Sat, Oct. 17 | No. 35 Auburn at No. 2 Georgia | Georgia | 17.7 | 15.0 | 87% | |
| Sat, Oct. 17 | No. 12 Missouri at No. 14 Ole Miss | Ole Miss | 2.3 | Missouri by 0.4 | 56% | |
| Sat, Oct. 17 | No. 3 Alabama at No. 15 Tennessee | Alabama | 7.6 | 10.3 | 68% | |
| Sat, Oct. 17 | No. 65 Arizona State at No. 11 Texas Tech | Texas Tech | 15.4 | 12.7 | 83% | |
| Sat, Oct. 17 | No. 38 Florida State at No. 5 Miami | Miami | 16.7 | 14.0 | 85% | |
| Sat, Oct. 17 | No. 1 Notre Dame at No. 16 BYU | Notre Dame | 8.6 | 11.3 | 71% | |
| Sat, Oct. 17 | No. 31 Kentucky at No. 18 Oklahoma | Oklahoma | 5.6 | 2.9 | 64% | |
| Sat, Oct. 17 | No. 24 Louisville at No. 77 Syracuse | Louisville | 9.9 | 12.6 | 73% | |
| Sat, Oct. 17 | No. 7 Utah at No. 72 Colorado | Utah | 17.7 | 20.4 | 87% |
Idle: No. 10 Oregon, No. 13 Nebraska, No. 17 Iowa, No. 20 South Carolina, No. 22 UCLA, No. 23 USC. Days are Eastern time. Ranks are this week's. Win probability is modeled, not measured.
These expectations are locked as of this edition. Next week's edition will score each game against its result: whether the favorite won, and how far the final margin landed from the expected one.
Methodology
Each edition uses two stored builds of the AnalytIQ College Football Team Rating (cfb-rating-v1): the build from before Week 6 kicked off (Oct. 6, 2026) and the build after all Week 6 games (Oct. 11, 2026). Ranks are computed among the 138 rated teams.
References and data
- AnalytIQ rating builds of cfb-rating-v1, Oct. 6, 2026 and Oct. 11, 2026: ratings and ranks.
- AnalytIQ game catalog: records, scores and the Week 7 schedule. Records include games against FCS opponents.
- AnalytIQ, College Football Rating v1 specification, Sprint 2 validation report and CFB home-edge calibration: the rating definition, the 2.7-point home effect refit on 2020–2024 games and tested on 2025, and the 15.9-point holdout error.
- Pascal Institute: How the College Football Ratings Work
- No. 25 Texas A&M plays The Citadel, an FCS team the rating does not cover, so that game has no expectation and is not counted among this week's games or idle teams.
- Revised Oct. 11, before any Week 7 kickoff: this week's expectations use the 2.7-point home edge the series adopted from this edition (see the methodology). The first version, published earlier the same day, used 1.6 points and had Indiana as a 2.6-point favorite with a 56% chance against Ohio State. Last week's scorecard, the rankings and the movement are unchanged.