Alabama takes over the top spot in the Pascal Institute College Football Power Rankings after a 56–23 win at Mississippi State. The Crimson Tide (5–0) climbed from No. 4 to No. 1 with a rating of 121.4, beating our expected margin in Starkville by 25 points. Indiana holds at No. 2 after a 47–15 win at Rutgers, and Notre Dame slides from No. 1 to No. 3 after an 11-point win at North Carolina that fell 12 points short of expectation.
The biggest moves came further down. Missouri jumped 21 spots to No. 18 after routing Florida 45–17, Florida State climbed 17 spots to No. 24 after beating Virginia 38–7, and Northwestern rose 11 spots to No. 12 after beating Penn State 34–13. Missouri and Florida State are new to the Top 25, replacing Iowa State and Virginia.
The top six are separated by 2.6 rating points, about 3 points of expected margin on a neutral field. That gap is small enough that one game can reorder the top, and this week Alabama hosts No. 4 Georgia in the game that decides whether the new No. 1 holds.
The Top 25 After Week 5
| Trend | Rank | Last week | Team | Record | Rating | Change | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ▲ | 1 | 4 | Alabama | 5–0 | 121.4 | +2.5 | |
| ● | 2 | 2 | Indiana | 5–0 | 120.2 | −0.8 | |
| ▼ | 3 | 1 | Notre Dame | 5–0 | 119.9 | −1.3 | |
| ▼ | 4 | 3 | Georgia | 5–0 | 119.3 | −0.5 | |
| ● | 5 | 5 | Ohio State | 4–1 | 119.2 | +0.5 | |
| ● | 6 | 6 | Miami | 5–0 | 118.8 | +1.0 | |
| ▲ | 7 | 8 | Texas | 4–0 | 116.7 | −0.3 | |
| ▼ | 8 | 7 | Utah | 4–0 | 116.7 | −0.5 | |
| ● | 9 | 9 | LSU | 4–1 | 115.4 | +0.2 | |
| ● | 10 | 10 | Oregon | 3–1 | 113.9 | +0.2 | |
| ▲ | 11 | 12 | Tennessee | 4–1 | 112.3 | +0.5 | |
| ▲ | 12 | 23 | Northwestern | 3–1 | 111.7 | +2.5 | |
| ▲ | 13 | 21 | Texas A&M | 3–2 | 111.1 | +1.0 | |
| ▲ | 14 | 17 | Texas Tech | 5–0 | 111.1 | +0.7 | |
| ▼ | 15 | 13 | Iowa | 4–1 | 110.5 | −0.8 | |
| ▲ | 16 | 18 | Nebraska | 5–0 | 110.3 | 0.0 | |
| ▼ | 17 | 11 | Florida | 4–1 | 110.1 | −3.6 | |
| ▲ | 18 | 39 | Missouri | 4–1 | 110.0 | +4.1 | |
| ▲ | 19 | 20 | BYU | 4–0 | 109.8 | −0.4 | |
| ▼ | 20 | 16 | Ole Miss | 3–1 | 109.5 | −1.2 | |
| ▼ | 21 | 14 | Pittsburgh | 5–0 | 109.4 | −1.6 | |
| ▼ | 22 | 19 | Mississippi State | 4–1 | 109.4 | −0.8 | |
| ▼ | 23 | 15 | Penn State | 3–2 | 109.4 | −1.5 | |
| ▲ | 24 | 41 | Florida State | 3–2 | 109.2 | +4.2 | |
| ▼ | 25 | 22 | Oklahoma | 2–2 | 109.1 | −0.3 |
Dropped out: No. 24 Iowa State (now No. 30), No. 25 Virginia (now No. 45). Next five: Wisconsin 109.0, USC 108.8, UCLA 108.4, South Carolina 108.0, Iowa State 107.9. Last week is the rank before Week 5 kicked off. Change is in rating points. Ties at one decimal are ordered by the unrounded rating. Team names link to the live College Football Team Ratings.
The rating is a forecast of strength, not a résumé, so a team can move up after a loss or down after a win. A team that did not play still moves when the teams it has already faced gain or lose rating.
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Who Moved and Why
Alabama (▲ 4 to 1). We expected Alabama to win at No. 19 Mississippi State by about 8 points, after giving the Bulldogs home field. It won by 33, the largest gap over expectation among last week's top 10.
Notre Dame (▼ 1 to 3). The Irish won 37–26 at North Carolina, but we expected a 23-point win against a team ranked No. 70. The rating rewards beating expectations, not winning, so an unbeaten team can fall after a win.
Missouri (▲ 39 to 18) and Florida (▼ 11 to 17). Florida came in favored by about 7 points and lost 45–17 in Columbia. That 35-point swing from expectation was the largest of any game involving a Top 25 team.
Florida State (▲ 41 to 24) and Virginia (▼ 25 to 45). Virginia was a 3-point favorite on the road and lost 38–7. The Seminoles are 3–2 and back in the Top 25, and Virginia falls out.
Northwestern (▲ 23 to 12) and Penn State (▼ 15 to 23). With home field, we rated the game a toss-up. Northwestern won 34–13 in Evanston. Northwestern's climb also lifts the rating of every team that has played it.
Texas A&M (▲ 21 to 13). The Aggies beat Arkansas 34–7, about 17 points better than expected.
Pittsburgh (▼ 14 to 21) and Iowa State (▼ 24 to 30). Both won and both fell. Pittsburgh won 35–33 at Virginia Tech when we expected a 6-point win, and Iowa State beat West Virginia 45–42 when we expected 13.
Iowa (▼ 13 to 15). Iowa lost 31–14 at home to Ohio State, 10 points worse than expected. Ohio State moved up half a point.
Ole Miss (▼ 16 to 20). Ole Miss was idle. It slipped because teams it had already played lost rating this week.
Week 6: What We Expect
Of this week's Top 25, 22 teams play in 18 games and three are idle. Expected margins include 1.6 points of home field, and the favorite is the team expected to win after that adjustment. If the ratings are well calibrated, about 12.6 of the 18 favorites should win. Three games are within 3 points and close to a toss-up. Home field flips one pick: Missouri is a 0.4-point favorite over Texas A&M, which the neutral-field rating favors by 1.2.
| Day | Game | Favorite | Expected margin with home field (pts) | Neutral-field margin (pts) | Win probability | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, Oct. 9 | No. 24 Florida State at No. 36 Louisville | Florida State | 0.8 | 2.4 | 52% | |
| Fri, Oct. 9 | No. 15 Iowa at No. 46 Washington | Iowa | 4.6 | 6.2 | 61% | |
| Fri, Oct. 9 | No. 30 Iowa State at No. 19 BYU | BYU | 3.7 | 2.1 | 59% | |
| Sat, Oct. 10 | No. 13 Texas A&M at No. 18 Missouri | Missouri | 0.4 | Texas A&M by 1.2 | 51% | |
| Sat, Oct. 10 | No. 2 Indiana at No. 16 Nebraska | Indiana | 9.5 | 11.1 | 73% | |
| Sat, Oct. 10 | No. 59 North Carolina at No. 21 Pittsburgh | Pittsburgh | 10.1 | 8.5 | 74% | |
| Sat, Oct. 10 | No. 134 Ball State at No. 12 Northwestern | Northwestern | 33.5 | 31.9 | 98% | |
| Sat, Oct. 10 | No. 29 South Carolina at No. 17 Florida | Florida | 3.9 | 2.3 | 60% | |
| Sat, Oct. 10 | No. 104 Stanford at No. 3 Notre Dame | Notre Dame | 32.3 | 30.7 | 98% | |
| Sat, Oct. 10 | No. 7 Texas vs. No. 25 Oklahoma (neutral site) | Texas | 8.5 | 8.5 | 70% | |
| Sat, Oct. 10 | No. 28 UCLA at No. 10 Oregon | Oregon | 7.9 | 6.3 | 69% | |
| Sat, Oct. 10 | No. 20 Ole Miss at No. 51 Vanderbilt | Ole Miss | 4.3 | 5.9 | 61% | |
| Sat, Oct. 10 | No. 11 Tennessee at No. 62 Arkansas | Tennessee | 10.9 | 12.5 | 75% | |
| Sat, Oct. 10 | No. 79 Maryland at No. 5 Ohio State | Ohio State | 26.0 | 24.4 | 95% | |
| Sat, Oct. 10 | No. 9 LSU at No. 33 Kentucky | LSU | 7.1 | 8.7 | 67% | |
| Sat, Oct. 10 | No. 4 Georgia at No. 1 Alabama | Alabama | 3.9 | 2.3 | 60% | |
| Sat, Oct. 10 | No. 27 USC at No. 23 Penn State | Penn State | 2.3 | 0.7 | 56% | |
| Sat, Oct. 10 | No. 42 Kansas at No. 8 Utah | Utah | 13.4 | 11.8 | 80% |
Idle: No. 6 Miami, No. 14 Texas Tech, No. 22 Mississippi State. Days are Eastern time. Ranks are this week's. Win probability is modeled, not measured.
These expectations are locked as of this edition. Next week's edition will score each game against its result: whether the favorite won, and how far the final margin landed from the expected one.
Methodology
Each edition uses two stored builds of the AnalytIQ College Football Team Rating (cfb-rating-v1): the build from before Week 5 kicked off (Oct. 1, 2026) and the build after all Week 5 games (Oct. 5, 2026). Ranks are computed among the 138 rated teams.
References and data
- AnalytIQ rating builds of cfb-rating-v1, Oct. 1, 2026 and Oct. 5, 2026: ratings and ranks.
- AnalytIQ game catalog: records, scores and the Week 6 schedule. Records include games against FCS opponents.
- AnalytIQ, College Football Rating v1 specification and Sprint 2 validation report: the rating definition, the 1.6-point home effect and the 15.9-point holdout error, which has not been re-run since a week-labeling issue in historical snapshots was found.
- Pascal Institute: How the College Football Ratings Work