Notre Dame stays No. 1 in the Pascal Institute College Football Power Rankings after a 35-13 win over Navy. The Irish (7-1) won on a neutral field by 5.1 points less than we expected, and their rating fell 1.0 point to 118.9. Alabama, idle this week, climbs three spots to No. 2 at 118.3, and Georgia climbs three to No. 3 after beating Florida 27-8. Ohio State falls two spots to No. 4 after a 30-18 loss at USC. Miami is still unbeaten at 8-0 but slips two spots to No. 5 after winning only 38-35 at North Carolina.
Favorites mostly held. Of the 16 games we previewed with an expectation, favorites won 13, slightly more than the 12.2 implied by the probabilities we published. The biggest upset was Washington, a 26% underdog, winning 17-10 at Nebraska. USC beat Ohio State as a 28% underdog, and South Carolina won 42-25 at Oklahoma. The scorecard below lists every game.
The biggest move in the Top 25 belongs to Iowa, up 13 spots to No. 14 after a 30-0 win over Wisconsin. Wake Forest climbs 11 spots to No. 13 after beating Virginia 51-7, and Iowa, Missouri and USC enter the Top 25, replacing Northwestern, Arizona and Oklahoma. Nebraska falls nine spots to No. 23 after its loss to Washington. Arizona falls nine spots to No. 27 after a 34-26 loss at Texas Tech, and Oklahoma falls nine to No. 28.
The top six are separated by 1.5 rating points, about 1.7 points of expected margin on a neutral field. Indiana and USC are idle this week. No. 5 Miami visits No. 1 Notre Dame, No. 2 Alabama plays at No. 6 LSU, and No. 3 Georgia goes to No. 9 Ole Miss. No. 12 Oregon visits No. 4 Ohio State, and No. 18 BYU plays at No. 10 Utah.
Last Week's Expectations, Scored
Favorites won 13 of 16 games, against about 12.2 expected from the win probabilities we published. Final margins landed an average of 13.5 points from our expectations, compared with the rating's typical error of 15.9 points. The biggest upset was Washington over Nebraska, which we had given a 26% chance.
| Game | Favorite | Expected margin (pts) | Result | Favorite won? | Miss (pts) | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No. 1 Notre Dame vs. No. 88 Navy (neutral site) | Notre Dame | 27.1 | Notre Dame 35-13 | Yes | -5.1 | |
| No. 17 Arizona at No. 15 Texas Tech | Texas Tech | 3.3 | Texas Tech 34-26 | Yes | +4.7 | |
| No. 29 Auburn at No. 10 Ole Miss | Ole Miss | 8.4 | Ole Miss 45-15 | Yes | +21.6 | |
| No. 98 Stanford at No. 25 Louisville | Louisville | 20.4 | Louisville 52-24 | Yes | +7.6 | |
| No. 63 Arizona State at No. 13 BYU | BYU | 13.9 | BYU 27-20 | Yes | -6.9 | |
| No. 24 Florida vs. No. 5 Georgia (neutral site) | Georgia | 9.8 | Georgia 27-8 | Yes | +9.2 | |
| No. 61 Minnesota at No. 4 Indiana | Indiana | 21.2 | Indiana 23-16 | Yes | -14.2 | |
| No. 18 Northwestern at No. 12 Oregon | Oregon | 4.5 | Oregon 34-26 | Yes | +3.5 | |
| No. 9 Utah at No. 52 Cincinnati | Utah | 8.6 | Utah 49-25 | Yes | +15.4 | |
| No. 53 Virginia at No. 23 Wake Forest | Wake Forest | 8.8 | Wake Forest 51-7 | Yes | +35.2 | |
| No. 19 South Carolina at No. 16 Oklahoma | Oklahoma | 2.9 | South Carolina 42-25 | No | -19.9 | |
| No. 100 Nevada at No. 20 UCLA | UCLA | 21.3 | UCLA 27-0 | Yes | +5.7 | |
| No. 2 Miami at No. 54 North Carolina | Miami | 14.8 | Miami 38-35 | Yes | -11.8 | |
| No. 36 Mississippi State at No. 8 Texas | Texas | 11.9 | Texas 31-3 | Yes | +16.1 | |
| No. 3 Ohio State at No. 31 USC | Ohio State | 9.4 | USC 30-18 | No | -21.4 | |
| No. 49 Washington at No. 14 Nebraska | Nebraska | 10.3 | Washington 17-10 | No | -17.3 |
Expected margins are the locked values from the Week 9 edition, from the favorite's view, including home field. Miss is the actual margin minus the expected margin; positive means the favorite did better than expected.
The Top 25 After Week 9
| Trend | Rank | Last week | Team | Record | Rating | Change | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ● | 1 | 1 | Notre Dame | 7-1 | 118.9 | -1.0 | |
| ▲ | 2 | 5 | Alabama | 6-2 | 118.3 | -0.1 | |
| ▲ | 3 | 6 | Georgia | 7-1 | 118.1 | 0.0 | |
| ▼ | 4 | 2 | Ohio State | 6-2 | 117.8 | -1.8 | |
| ▼ | 5 | 3 | Miami | 8-0 | 117.6 | -1.2 | |
| ▲ | 6 | 7 | LSU | 6-2 | 117.5 | +0.2 | |
| ▼ | 7 | 4 | Indiana | 8-1 | 117.0 | -1.4 | |
| ● | 8 | 8 | Texas | 6-2 | 116.5 | +0.9 | |
| ▲ | 9 | 10 | Ole Miss | 6-2 | 115.4 | +1.7 | |
| ▼ | 10 | 9 | Utah | 8-0 | 114.6 | +0.7 | |
| ● | 11 | 11 | Tennessee | 6-2 | 113.2 | 0.0 | |
| ● | 12 | 12 | Oregon | 5-3 | 112.3 | +0.3 | |
| ▲ | 13 | 24 | Wake Forest | 7-1 | 111.6 | +1.9 | |
| ▲ | 14 | 27 | Iowa | 6-2 | 111.5 | +2.1 | |
| ● | 15 | 15 | Texas Tech | 7-1 | 111.0 | +0.1 | |
| ▲ | 16 | 21 | South Carolina | 5-3 | 110.7 | +0.7 | |
| ▲ | 17 | 26 | Missouri | 6-2 | 110.7 | +1.2 | |
| ▼ | 18 | 13 | BYU | 7-1 | 110.5 | -0.9 | |
| ▼ | 19 | 17 | Texas A&M | 4-4 | 110.4 | +0.3 | |
| ▲ | 20 | 23 | Louisville | 5-3 | 110.3 | +0.4 | |
| ▲ | 21 | 31 | USC | 7-2 | 110.3 | +2.0 | |
| ▼ | 22 | 16 | UCLA | 8-0 | 110.2 | -0.1 | |
| ▼ | 23 | 14 | Nebraska | 5-3 | 110.1 | -1.1 | |
| ▼ | 24 | 20 | Florida | 5-3 | 110.0 | 0.0 | |
| ● | 25 | 25 | Kentucky | 7-1 | 109.5 | 0.0 |
Dropped out: No. 18 Arizona (now No. 27), No. 19 Oklahoma (now No. 28), No. 22 Northwestern (now No. 26). Next five: Northwestern 109.5, Arizona 109.4, Oklahoma 108.7, Houston 108.5, Penn State 108.4. Last week is the rank before Week 9 kicked off. Change is in rating points. Ties at one decimal are ordered by the unrounded rating. Team names link to the live College Football Team Ratings.
The rating is a forecast of strength, not a résumé, so a team can move up after a loss or down after a win. A team that did not play still moves when the teams it has already faced gain or lose rating.
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Who Moved and Why
Ohio State (▼ 2 to 4) and USC (▲ 31 to 21). Ohio State was a 9.4-point favorite at USC, with a 72% chance of winning. USC won 30-18, 21.4 points better than expected for the Trojans. Ohio State's rating fell 1.8 points to 117.8, the largest drop of any team in this week's Top 25, and the Buckeyes (6-2) fall two spots. USC (7-2) climbs 10 spots and back into the Top 25.
Nebraska (▼ 14 to 23) and Washington (▲ 47 to 36). Nebraska was a 10.3-point favorite at home, with a 74% chance of winning, which makes this the biggest upset of the week. Washington won 17-10, 17.3 points better than expected for the Huskies. Nebraska's rating fell 1.1 points, and the Cornhuskers (5-3) drop nine spots. Washington climbs 11 spots to No. 36.
Iowa (▲ 27 to 14) and Wisconsin (▼ 28 to 33). With home field, the ratings before the game made Iowa a 3.0-point favorite over Wisconsin. Iowa won 30-0, 27.0 points better than expected, and its rating rose 2.1 points, the most of any Top 25 team. The Hawkeyes (6-2) jump 13 spots back into the Top 25.
Wake Forest (▲ 24 to 13). We expected Wake Forest to beat Virginia by 8.8 points at home, with a 71% chance of winning. It won 51-7, 35.2 points better than expected, the largest gap of any game we previewed. Its rating rose 1.9 points to 111.6, and the Demon Deacons (7-1) climb 11 spots.
South Carolina (▲ 21 to 16) and Oklahoma (▼ 19 to 28). Oklahoma was a 2.9-point favorite at home, with a 57% chance of winning, so we saw this game as close to even. South Carolina won 42-25, 19.9 points better than expected, and climbs five spots. Oklahoma (4-4) drops nine spots and out of the Top 25.
Missouri (▲ 26 to 17). The ratings before the game made Missouri a 4.8-point favorite at Arkansas. Missouri won 34-10, 19.2 points better than expected, and its rating rose 1.2 points. The Tigers (6-2) climb nine spots into the Top 25.
Indiana (▼ 4 to 7). Indiana was a 21.2-point favorite at home against Minnesota, with a 91% chance of winning. It won 23-16, 14.2 points short of that, and its rating fell 1.4 points to 117.0. The Hoosiers (8-1) drop three spots.
Miami (▼ 3 to 5). Miami was a 14.8-point favorite at North Carolina, with an 82% chance of winning. The Hurricanes won 38-35, 11.8 points short of that, and their rating fell 1.2 points to 117.6. Still unbeaten at 8-0, they slip two spots as Alabama and Georgia pass them.
Week 10: What We Expect
Of this week's Top 25, 22 teams play in 14 games and two are idle. Expected margins include 2.7 points of home field, and the favorite is the team expected to win after that adjustment. If the ratings are well calibrated, about 8.8 of the 14 favorites should win. Four games are within 3 points and close to a toss-up. Home field flips two picks, each a home team the neutral-field rating had as a slight underdog: Northwestern over Iowa, LSU over Alabama.
| Day | Game | Favorite | Expected margin with home field (pts) | Neutral-field margin (pts) | Win probability | Share |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri, Nov. 6 | No. 23 Nebraska at No. 43 Illinois | Nebraska | 2.9 | 5.6 | 57% | |
| Fri, Nov. 6 | No. 22 UCLA at No. 52 Minnesota | UCLA | 5.3 | 8.0 | 63% | |
| Fri, Nov. 6 | No. 14 Iowa at No. 26 Northwestern | Northwestern | 0.5 | Iowa by 2.2 | 51% | |
| Sat, Nov. 7 | No. 8 Texas at No. 17 Missouri | Texas | 3.9 | 6.6 | 60% | |
| Sat, Nov. 7 | No. 18 BYU at No. 10 Utah | Utah | 7.3 | 4.6 | 68% | |
| Sat, Nov. 7 | No. 19 Texas A&M at No. 16 South Carolina | South Carolina | 3.1 | 0.4 | 58% | |
| Sat, Nov. 7 | No. 2 Alabama at No. 6 LSU | LSU | 1.8 | Alabama by 0.9 | 54% | |
| Sat, Nov. 7 | No. 12 Oregon at No. 4 Ohio State | Ohio State | 9.0 | 6.3 | 71% | |
| Sat, Nov. 7 | No. 25 Kentucky at No. 11 Tennessee | Tennessee | 6.8 | 4.1 | 67% | |
| Sat, Nov. 7 | No. 20 Louisville at No. 80 Georgia Tech | Louisville | 11.4 | 14.1 | 76% | |
| Sat, Nov. 7 | No. 5 Miami at No. 1 Notre Dame | Notre Dame | 4.2 | 1.5 | 60% | |
| Sat, Nov. 7 | No. 3 Georgia at No. 9 Ole Miss | Georgia | 0.3 | 3.0 | 51% | |
| Sat, Nov. 7 | No. 28 Oklahoma at No. 24 Florida | Florida | 4.2 | 1.5 | 60% | |
| Sat, Nov. 7 | No. 68 West Virginia at No. 15 Texas Tech | Texas Tech | 14.1 | 11.4 | 81% |
Idle: No. 7 Indiana, No. 21 USC. Days are Eastern time. Ranks are this week's. Win probability is modeled, not measured.
These expectations are locked as of this edition. Next week's edition will score each game against its result: whether the favorite won, and how far the final margin landed from the expected one.
Methodology
Each edition uses two stored builds of the Pascal Rating for college football (cfb-rating-v1): the build from before Week 9 kicked off (Oct. 27, 2026) and the build after all Week 9 games (Nov. 1, 2026). Ranks are computed among the 138 rated teams.
See how the ratings have been scored in public, season by season and in retrospective studies, in the Track Record.
References and data
- Pascal Rating builds of cfb-rating-v1, Oct. 27, 2026 and Nov. 1, 2026: ratings and ranks.
- AnalytIQ game catalog: records, scores and the Week 10 schedule. Records include games against FCS opponents.
- AnalytIQ, College Football Rating v1 specification, Sprint 2 validation report and CFB home-edge calibration: the rating definition, the 2.7-point home effect refit on 2020-2024 games and tested on 2025, and the 15.9-point holdout error.
- Pascal Institute: How the College Football Ratings Work
- Movement in this edition is measured from the Oct. 27 rating build, the last before Week 9's first kickoff, as the Week 9 edition's note announced. That build differs slightly from the Oct. 26 build Week 9 published, so some teams' Last week ranks here differ from the Week 9 page: for example, Alabama was No. 5 in the Oct. 27 build and No. 6 in Week 9, and Georgia No. 6 and No. 5. The Week 9 scorecard on this page scores the expectations as published.
- No. 13 Wake Forest plays Merrimack, an FCS team the rating does not cover, so that game has no expectation and is not counted among this week's games or idle teams.
- Two of this week's games had no kickoff time when this edition was prepared: UCLA at Minnesota and Iowa at Northwestern. They are listed on Saturday, Nov. 7, their scheduled date.