{
  "schema": "pascal-power-rankings-edition",
  "schema_version": 1,
  "kind": "weekly",
  "sport": "nfl",
  "sport_name": "NFL",
  "season": 2026,
  "week": 6,
  "finished_week": 5,
  "published": "2026-10-13",
  "url": "https://www.pascalinitiative.com/power-rankings/nfl/2026/week-6/",
  "data_url": "https://www.pascalinitiative.com/power-rankings/nfl/2026/week-6/edition.json",
  "previous_edition": {
    "week": 5,
    "url": "https://www.pascalinitiative.com/power-rankings/nfl/2026/week-5/",
    "data_url": "https://www.pascalinitiative.com/power-rankings/nfl/2026/week-5/edition.json"
  },
  "title": "NFL Power Rankings: Week 6",
  "headline": "Jacksonville Holds No. 1 as San Francisco Closes In",
  "dek": "The Jaguars stay on top after a 19–17 win over Philadelphia in London, and the unbeaten 49ers sit half a rating point behind after winning at Seattle.",
  "model": {
    "rating_version": "nfl-rating-v1",
    "points_per_rating_point": 0.361,
    "home_edge": 1.7,
    "margin_sd": 13.0,
    "methodology_url": "https://www.pascalinitiative.com/power-rankings/nfl/methodology/"
  },
  "builds": {
    "current": {
      "build_id": "c2e5a353-c9de-4b14-9d94-db2c7e53d6d0",
      "effective_at": "2026-10-13T10:01:14Z"
    },
    "baseline": {
      "build_id": "accd2b75-eaa2-40eb-b0db-b9e15f89289b",
      "effective_at": "2026-10-08T10:01:01Z"
    }
  },
  "top_n": 32,
  "team_count": 32,
  "teams": [
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      "slug": "jacksonville-jaguars",
      "name": "Jacksonville Jaguars",
      "rank": 1,
      "previous_rank": 1,
      "rank_change": 0,
      "rating": 115.164266,
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      "wins": 4,
      "losses": 1,
      "top_n": true,
      "display": {
        "rating": "115.2",
        "rating_change": "+1.3",
        "record": "4–1"
      },
      "ties": 0
    },
    {
      "slug": "san-francisco-49ers",
      "name": "San Francisco 49ers",
      "rank": 2,
      "previous_rank": 4,
      "rank_change": 2,
      "rating": 114.714461,
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      "rating_change": 2.369915,
      "wins": 5,
      "losses": 0,
      "top_n": true,
      "display": {
        "rating": "114.7",
        "rating_change": "+2.4",
        "record": "5–0"
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      "ties": 0
    },
    {
      "slug": "los-angeles-rams",
      "name": "Los Angeles Rams",
      "rank": 3,
      "previous_rank": 2,
      "rank_change": -1,
      "rating": 111.910785,
      "previous_rating": 113.504828,
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      "wins": 2,
      "losses": 3,
      "top_n": true,
      "display": {
        "rating": "111.9",
        "rating_change": "−1.6",
        "record": "2–3"
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      "ties": 0
    },
    {
      "slug": "kansas-city-chiefs",
      "name": "Kansas City Chiefs",
      "rank": 4,
      "previous_rank": 5,
      "rank_change": 1,
      "rating": 109.668974,
      "previous_rating": 110.349665,
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      "wins": 4,
      "losses": 0,
      "top_n": true,
      "display": {
        "rating": "109.7",
        "rating_change": "−0.7",
        "record": "4–0"
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      "ties": 0
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    {
      "slug": "seattle-seahawks",
      "name": "Seattle Seahawks",
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      "previous_rank": 3,
      "rank_change": -2,
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      "rating_change": -2.80691,
      "wins": 3,
      "losses": 2,
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      "display": {
        "rating": "109.6",
        "rating_change": "−2.8",
        "record": "3–2"
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      "ties": 0
    },
    {
      "slug": "buffalo-bills",
      "name": "Buffalo Bills",
      "rank": 6,
      "previous_rank": 8,
      "rank_change": 2,
      "rating": 107.867426,
      "previous_rating": 106.467255,
      "rating_change": 1.400171,
      "wins": 4,
      "losses": 1,
      "top_n": true,
      "display": {
        "rating": "107.9",
        "rating_change": "+1.4",
        "record": "4–1"
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      "ties": 0
    },
    {
      "slug": "new-england-patriots",
      "name": "New England Patriots",
      "rank": 7,
      "previous_rank": 9,
      "rank_change": 2,
      "rating": 107.628093,
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      "display": {
        "rating": "107.6",
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      "ties": 0
    },
    {
      "slug": "houston-texans",
      "name": "Houston Texans",
      "rank": 8,
      "previous_rank": 11,
      "rank_change": 3,
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      "rating_change": 3.130059,
      "wins": 1,
      "losses": 4,
      "top_n": true,
      "display": {
        "rating": "106.3",
        "rating_change": "+3.1",
        "record": "1–4"
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      "ties": 0
    },
    {
      "slug": "baltimore-ravens",
      "name": "Baltimore Ravens",
      "rank": 9,
      "previous_rank": 7,
      "rank_change": -2,
      "rating": 105.993665,
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      "losses": 1,
      "top_n": true,
      "display": {
        "rating": "106.0",
        "rating_change": "−0.6",
        "record": "4–1"
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      "ties": 0
    },
    {
      "slug": "denver-broncos",
      "name": "Denver Broncos",
      "rank": 10,
      "previous_rank": 10,
      "rank_change": 0,
      "rating": 103.471987,
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      "rating_change": 0.021569,
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      "losses": 2,
      "top_n": true,
      "display": {
        "rating": "103.5",
        "rating_change": "0.0",
        "record": "3–2"
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      "ties": 0
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    {
      "slug": "minnesota-vikings",
      "name": "Minnesota Vikings",
      "rank": 11,
      "previous_rank": 12,
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      "rating_change": 2.01362,
      "wins": 5,
      "losses": 0,
      "top_n": true,
      "display": {
        "rating": "103.4",
        "rating_change": "+2.0",
        "record": "5–0"
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      "ties": 0
    },
    {
      "slug": "green-bay-packers",
      "name": "Green Bay Packers",
      "rank": 12,
      "previous_rank": 18,
      "rank_change": 6,
      "rating": 103.368833,
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      "rating_change": 6.39542,
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      "losses": 2,
      "top_n": true,
      "display": {
        "rating": "103.4",
        "rating_change": "+6.4",
        "record": "3–2"
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      "ties": 0
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    {
      "slug": "chicago-bears",
      "name": "Chicago Bears",
      "rank": 13,
      "previous_rank": 6,
      "rank_change": -7,
      "rating": 102.796782,
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      "rating_change": -6.1344,
      "wins": 3,
      "losses": 2,
      "top_n": true,
      "display": {
        "rating": "102.8",
        "rating_change": "−6.1",
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      "ties": 0
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    {
      "slug": "detroit-lions",
      "name": "Detroit Lions",
      "rank": 14,
      "previous_rank": 13,
      "rank_change": -1,
      "rating": 102.63812,
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      "rating_change": 1.848824,
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      "losses": 2,
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      "display": {
        "rating": "102.6",
        "rating_change": "+1.8",
        "record": "3–2"
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      "ties": 0
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    {
      "slug": "atlanta-falcons",
      "name": "Atlanta Falcons",
      "rank": 15,
      "previous_rank": 15,
      "rank_change": 0,
      "rating": 100.394153,
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      "rating_change": 0.897025,
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      "losses": 3,
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      "display": {
        "rating": "100.4",
        "rating_change": "+0.9",
        "record": "2–3"
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      "ties": 0
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    {
      "slug": "carolina-panthers",
      "name": "Carolina Panthers",
      "rank": 16,
      "previous_rank": 14,
      "rank_change": -2,
      "rating": 99.743959,
      "previous_rating": 100.102806,
      "rating_change": -0.358847,
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      "display": {
        "rating": "99.7",
        "rating_change": "−0.4",
        "record": "2–2"
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      "ties": 0
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    {
      "slug": "cincinnati-bengals",
      "name": "Cincinnati Bengals",
      "rank": 17,
      "previous_rank": 17,
      "rank_change": 0,
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      "wins": 3,
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      "display": {
        "rating": "99.7",
        "rating_change": "+2.5",
        "record": "3–2"
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      "ties": 0
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    {
      "slug": "tampa-bay-buccaneers",
      "name": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers",
      "rank": 18,
      "previous_rank": 21,
      "rank_change": 3,
      "rating": 98.092265,
      "previous_rating": 95.208752,
      "rating_change": 2.883513,
      "wins": 1,
      "losses": 4,
      "top_n": true,
      "display": {
        "rating": "98.1",
        "rating_change": "+2.9",
        "record": "1–4"
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      "ties": 0
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    {
      "slug": "pittsburgh-steelers",
      "name": "Pittsburgh Steelers",
      "rank": 19,
      "previous_rank": 24,
      "rank_change": 5,
      "rating": 97.329986,
      "previous_rating": 94.653297,
      "rating_change": 2.676689,
      "wins": 3,
      "losses": 2,
      "top_n": true,
      "display": {
        "rating": "97.3",
        "rating_change": "+2.7",
        "record": "3–2"
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      "ties": 0
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    {
      "slug": "indianapolis-colts",
      "name": "Indianapolis Colts",
      "rank": 20,
      "previous_rank": 16,
      "rank_change": -4,
      "rating": 96.090534,
      "previous_rating": 98.643044,
      "rating_change": -2.55251,
      "wins": 2,
      "losses": 3,
      "top_n": true,
      "display": {
        "rating": "96.1",
        "rating_change": "−2.6",
        "record": "2–3"
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      "ties": 0
    },
    {
      "slug": "cleveland-browns",
      "name": "Cleveland Browns",
      "rank": 21,
      "previous_rank": 25,
      "rank_change": 4,
      "rating": 93.580315,
      "previous_rating": 93.212497,
      "rating_change": 0.367818,
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      "losses": 2,
      "top_n": true,
      "display": {
        "rating": "93.6",
        "rating_change": "+0.4",
        "record": "3–2"
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      "ties": 0
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    {
      "slug": "los-angeles-chargers",
      "name": "Los Angeles Chargers",
      "rank": 22,
      "previous_rank": 20,
      "rank_change": -2,
      "rating": 93.504063,
      "previous_rating": 95.337625,
      "rating_change": -1.833562,
      "wins": 0,
      "losses": 5,
      "top_n": true,
      "display": {
        "rating": "93.5",
        "rating_change": "−1.8",
        "record": "0–5"
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      "ties": 0
    },
    {
      "slug": "dallas-cowboys",
      "name": "Dallas Cowboys",
      "rank": 23,
      "previous_rank": 23,
      "rank_change": 0,
      "rating": 93.210646,
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      "rating_change": -1.494294,
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      "losses": 3,
      "top_n": true,
      "display": {
        "rating": "93.2",
        "rating_change": "−1.5",
        "record": "2–3"
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      "ties": 0
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    {
      "slug": "philadelphia-eagles",
      "name": "Philadelphia Eagles",
      "rank": 24,
      "previous_rank": 19,
      "rank_change": -5,
      "rating": 92.877341,
      "previous_rating": 95.765104,
      "rating_change": -2.887763,
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      "losses": 3,
      "top_n": true,
      "display": {
        "rating": "92.9",
        "rating_change": "−2.9",
        "record": "2–3"
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      "ties": 0
    },
    {
      "slug": "new-york-jets",
      "name": "New York Jets",
      "rank": 25,
      "previous_rank": 30,
      "rank_change": 5,
      "rating": 92.111672,
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      "rating_change": 2.263585,
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      "losses": 3,
      "top_n": true,
      "display": {
        "rating": "92.1",
        "rating_change": "+2.3",
        "record": "2–3"
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      "ties": 0
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    {
      "slug": "las-vegas-raiders",
      "name": "Las Vegas Raiders",
      "rank": 26,
      "previous_rank": 22,
      "rank_change": -4,
      "rating": 91.759486,
      "previous_rating": 95.147475,
      "rating_change": -3.387989,
      "wins": 3,
      "losses": 2,
      "top_n": true,
      "display": {
        "rating": "91.8",
        "rating_change": "−3.4",
        "record": "3–2"
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      "ties": 0
    },
    {
      "slug": "new-york-giants",
      "name": "New York Giants",
      "rank": 27,
      "previous_rank": 27,
      "rank_change": 0,
      "rating": 91.11349,
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      "rating_change": -1.465877,
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      "losses": 1,
      "top_n": true,
      "display": {
        "rating": "91.1",
        "rating_change": "−1.5",
        "record": "3–1–1"
      },
      "ties": 1
    },
    {
      "slug": "new-orleans-saints",
      "name": "New Orleans Saints",
      "rank": 28,
      "previous_rank": 26,
      "rank_change": -2,
      "rating": 90.69293,
      "previous_rating": 92.61125,
      "rating_change": -1.91832,
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      "losses": 4,
      "top_n": true,
      "display": {
        "rating": "90.7",
        "rating_change": "−1.9",
        "record": "1–4"
      },
      "ties": 0
    },
    {
      "slug": "washington-commanders",
      "name": "Washington Commanders",
      "rank": 29,
      "previous_rank": 29,
      "rank_change": 0,
      "rating": 90.22435,
      "previous_rating": 90.335492,
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      "losses": 3,
      "top_n": true,
      "display": {
        "rating": "90.2",
        "rating_change": "−0.1",
        "record": "1–3–1"
      },
      "ties": 1
    },
    {
      "slug": "arizona-cardinals",
      "name": "Arizona Cardinals",
      "rank": 30,
      "previous_rank": 28,
      "rank_change": -2,
      "rating": 89.485659,
      "previous_rating": 92.190191,
      "rating_change": -2.704532,
      "wins": 1,
      "losses": 4,
      "top_n": true,
      "display": {
        "rating": "89.5",
        "rating_change": "−2.7",
        "record": "1–4"
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      "ties": 0
    },
    {
      "slug": "miami-dolphins",
      "name": "Miami Dolphins",
      "rank": 31,
      "previous_rank": 31,
      "rank_change": 0,
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      "previous_rating": 87.054104,
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      "losses": 5,
      "top_n": true,
      "display": {
        "rating": "86.5",
        "rating_change": "−0.6",
        "record": "0–5"
      },
      "ties": 0
    },
    {
      "slug": "tennessee-titans",
      "name": "Tennessee Titans",
      "rank": 32,
      "previous_rank": 32,
      "rank_change": 0,
      "rating": 81.65032,
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      "top_n": true,
      "display": {
        "rating": "81.7",
        "rating_change": "−3.9",
        "record": "0–5"
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      "ties": 0
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  ],
  "games": [
    {
      "slug": "seattle-seahawks-at-denver-broncos",
      "kickoff": "2026-10-16T00:15:00Z",
      "home": {
        "slug": "denver-broncos",
        "name": "Denver Broncos",
        "rank": 10
      },
      "away": {
        "slug": "seattle-seahawks",
        "name": "Seattle Seahawks",
        "rank": 5
      },
      "neutral_site": false,
      "both_top_n": true,
      "expectation": {
        "home_margin": -0.5072,
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        "margin": 0.5072,
        "win_probability": 0.5156,
        "home_win_probability": 0.4844,
        "neutral_favorite": "seattle-seahawks",
        "neutral_margin": 2.2072
      },
      "display": {
        "day": "Thu, Oct. 15",
        "matchup": "No. 5 Seattle Seahawks at No. 10 Denver Broncos",
        "favorite": "Seattle Seahawks",
        "margin": "0.5",
        "win_probability": "52%"
      }
    },
    {
      "slug": "houston-texans-vs-jacksonville-jaguars",
      "kickoff": "2026-10-18T13:30:00Z",
      "home": {
        "slug": "jacksonville-jaguars",
        "name": "Jacksonville Jaguars",
        "rank": 1
      },
      "away": {
        "slug": "houston-texans",
        "name": "Houston Texans",
        "rank": 8
      },
      "neutral_site": true,
      "both_top_n": true,
      "expectation": {
        "home_margin": 3.2027,
        "favorite": "jacksonville-jaguars",
        "margin": 3.2027,
        "win_probability": 0.5973,
        "home_win_probability": 0.5973,
        "neutral_favorite": "jacksonville-jaguars",
        "neutral_margin": 3.2027
      },
      "display": {
        "day": "Sun, Oct. 18",
        "matchup": "No. 8 Houston Texans vs. No. 1 Jacksonville Jaguars (neutral site)",
        "favorite": "Jacksonville Jaguars",
        "margin": "3.2",
        "win_probability": "60%"
      }
    },
    {
      "slug": "chicago-bears-at-atlanta-falcons",
      "kickoff": "2026-10-18T17:00:00Z",
      "home": {
        "slug": "atlanta-falcons",
        "name": "Atlanta Falcons",
        "rank": 15
      },
      "away": {
        "slug": "chicago-bears",
        "name": "Chicago Bears",
        "rank": 13
      },
      "neutral_site": false,
      "both_top_n": true,
      "expectation": {
        "home_margin": 0.8327,
        "favorite": "atlanta-falcons",
        "margin": 0.8327,
        "win_probability": 0.5255,
        "home_win_probability": 0.5255,
        "neutral_favorite": "chicago-bears",
        "neutral_margin": 0.8673
      },
      "display": {
        "day": "Sun, Oct. 18",
        "matchup": "No. 13 Chicago Bears at No. 15 Atlanta Falcons",
        "favorite": "Atlanta Falcons",
        "margin": "0.8",
        "win_probability": "53%"
      }
    },
    {
      "slug": "baltimore-ravens-at-cleveland-browns",
      "kickoff": "2026-10-18T17:00:00Z",
      "home": {
        "slug": "cleveland-browns",
        "name": "Cleveland Browns",
        "rank": 21
      },
      "away": {
        "slug": "baltimore-ravens",
        "name": "Baltimore Ravens",
        "rank": 9
      },
      "neutral_site": false,
      "both_top_n": true,
      "expectation": {
        "home_margin": -2.7812,
        "favorite": "baltimore-ravens",
        "margin": 2.7812,
        "win_probability": 0.5847,
        "home_win_probability": 0.4153,
        "neutral_favorite": "baltimore-ravens",
        "neutral_margin": 4.4812
      },
      "display": {
        "day": "Sun, Oct. 18",
        "matchup": "No. 9 Baltimore Ravens at No. 21 Cleveland Browns",
        "favorite": "Baltimore Ravens",
        "margin": "2.8",
        "win_probability": "58%"
      }
    },
    {
      "slug": "tennessee-titans-at-indianapolis-colts",
      "kickoff": "2026-10-18T17:00:00Z",
      "home": {
        "slug": "indianapolis-colts",
        "name": "Indianapolis Colts",
        "rank": 20
      },
      "away": {
        "slug": "tennessee-titans",
        "name": "Tennessee Titans",
        "rank": 32
      },
      "neutral_site": false,
      "both_top_n": true,
      "expectation": {
        "home_margin": 6.9129,
        "favorite": "indianapolis-colts",
        "margin": 6.9129,
        "win_probability": 0.7026,
        "home_win_probability": 0.7026,
        "neutral_favorite": "indianapolis-colts",
        "neutral_margin": 5.2129
      },
      "display": {
        "day": "Sun, Oct. 18",
        "matchup": "No. 32 Tennessee Titans at No. 20 Indianapolis Colts",
        "favorite": "Indianapolis Colts",
        "margin": "6.9",
        "win_probability": "70%"
      }
    },
    {
      "slug": "new-york-jets-at-new-england-patriots",
      "kickoff": "2026-10-18T17:00:00Z",
      "home": {
        "slug": "new-england-patriots",
        "name": "New England Patriots",
        "rank": 7
      },
      "away": {
        "slug": "new-york-jets",
        "name": "New York Jets",
        "rank": 25
      },
      "neutral_site": false,
      "both_top_n": true,
      "expectation": {
        "home_margin": 7.3014,
        "favorite": "new-england-patriots",
        "margin": 7.3014,
        "win_probability": 0.7128,
        "home_win_probability": 0.7128,
        "neutral_favorite": "new-england-patriots",
        "neutral_margin": 5.6014
      },
      "display": {
        "day": "Sun, Oct. 18",
        "matchup": "No. 25 New York Jets at No. 7 New England Patriots",
        "favorite": "New England Patriots",
        "margin": "7.3",
        "win_probability": "71%"
      }
    },
    {
      "slug": "new-orleans-saints-at-new-york-giants",
      "kickoff": "2026-10-18T17:00:00Z",
      "home": {
        "slug": "new-york-giants",
        "name": "New York Giants",
        "rank": 27
      },
      "away": {
        "slug": "new-orleans-saints",
        "name": "New Orleans Saints",
        "rank": 28
      },
      "neutral_site": false,
      "both_top_n": true,
      "expectation": {
        "home_margin": 1.8518,
        "favorite": "new-york-giants",
        "margin": 1.8518,
        "win_probability": 0.5566,
        "home_win_probability": 0.5566,
        "neutral_favorite": "new-york-giants",
        "neutral_margin": 0.1518
      },
      "display": {
        "day": "Sun, Oct. 18",
        "matchup": "No. 28 New Orleans Saints at No. 27 New York Giants",
        "favorite": "New York Giants",
        "margin": "1.9",
        "win_probability": "56%"
      }
    },
    {
      "slug": "carolina-panthers-at-philadelphia-eagles",
      "kickoff": "2026-10-18T17:00:00Z",
      "home": {
        "slug": "philadelphia-eagles",
        "name": "Philadelphia Eagles",
        "rank": 24
      },
      "away": {
        "slug": "carolina-panthers",
        "name": "Carolina Panthers",
        "rank": 16
      },
      "neutral_site": false,
      "both_top_n": true,
      "expectation": {
        "home_margin": -0.7788,
        "favorite": "carolina-panthers",
        "margin": 0.7788,
        "win_probability": 0.5239,
        "home_win_probability": 0.4761,
        "neutral_favorite": "carolina-panthers",
        "neutral_margin": 2.4788
      },
      "display": {
        "day": "Sun, Oct. 18",
        "matchup": "No. 16 Carolina Panthers at No. 24 Philadelphia Eagles",
        "favorite": "Carolina Panthers",
        "margin": "0.8",
        "win_probability": "52%"
      }
    },
    {
      "slug": "pittsburgh-steelers-at-tampa-bay-buccaneers",
      "kickoff": "2026-10-18T17:00:00Z",
      "home": {
        "slug": "tampa-bay-buccaneers",
        "name": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers",
        "rank": 18
      },
      "away": {
        "slug": "pittsburgh-steelers",
        "name": "Pittsburgh Steelers",
        "rank": 19
      },
      "neutral_site": false,
      "both_top_n": true,
      "expectation": {
        "home_margin": 1.9752,
        "favorite": "tampa-bay-buccaneers",
        "margin": 1.9752,
        "win_probability": 0.5604,
        "home_win_probability": 0.5604,
        "neutral_favorite": "tampa-bay-buccaneers",
        "neutral_margin": 0.2752
      },
      "display": {
        "day": "Sun, Oct. 18",
        "matchup": "No. 19 Pittsburgh Steelers at No. 18 Tampa Bay Buccaneers",
        "favorite": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers",
        "margin": "2.0",
        "win_probability": "56%"
      }
    },
    {
      "slug": "arizona-cardinals-at-los-angeles-rams",
      "kickoff": "2026-10-18T20:05:00Z",
      "home": {
        "slug": "los-angeles-rams",
        "name": "Los Angeles Rams",
        "rank": 3
      },
      "away": {
        "slug": "arizona-cardinals",
        "name": "Arizona Cardinals",
        "rank": 30
      },
      "neutral_site": false,
      "both_top_n": true,
      "expectation": {
        "home_margin": 9.7955,
        "favorite": "los-angeles-rams",
        "margin": 9.7955,
        "win_probability": 0.7744,
        "home_win_probability": 0.7744,
        "neutral_favorite": "los-angeles-rams",
        "neutral_margin": 8.0955
      },
      "display": {
        "day": "Sun, Oct. 18",
        "matchup": "No. 30 Arizona Cardinals at No. 3 Los Angeles Rams",
        "favorite": "Los Angeles Rams",
        "margin": "9.8",
        "win_probability": "77%"
      }
    },
    {
      "slug": "los-angeles-chargers-at-kansas-city-chiefs",
      "kickoff": "2026-10-18T20:25:00Z",
      "home": {
        "slug": "kansas-city-chiefs",
        "name": "Kansas City Chiefs",
        "rank": 4
      },
      "away": {
        "slug": "los-angeles-chargers",
        "name": "Los Angeles Chargers",
        "rank": 22
      },
      "neutral_site": false,
      "both_top_n": true,
      "expectation": {
        "home_margin": 7.5355,
        "favorite": "kansas-city-chiefs",
        "margin": 7.5355,
        "win_probability": 0.7189,
        "home_win_probability": 0.7189,
        "neutral_favorite": "kansas-city-chiefs",
        "neutral_margin": 5.8355
      },
      "display": {
        "day": "Sun, Oct. 18",
        "matchup": "No. 22 Los Angeles Chargers at No. 4 Kansas City Chiefs",
        "favorite": "Kansas City Chiefs",
        "margin": "7.5",
        "win_probability": "72%"
      }
    },
    {
      "slug": "buffalo-bills-at-las-vegas-raiders",
      "kickoff": "2026-10-18T20:25:00Z",
      "home": {
        "slug": "las-vegas-raiders",
        "name": "Las Vegas Raiders",
        "rank": 26
      },
      "away": {
        "slug": "buffalo-bills",
        "name": "Buffalo Bills",
        "rank": 6
      },
      "neutral_site": false,
      "both_top_n": true,
      "expectation": {
        "home_margin": -4.115,
        "favorite": "buffalo-bills",
        "margin": 4.115,
        "win_probability": 0.6242,
        "home_win_probability": 0.3758,
        "neutral_favorite": "buffalo-bills",
        "neutral_margin": 5.815
      },
      "display": {
        "day": "Sun, Oct. 18",
        "matchup": "No. 6 Buffalo Bills at No. 26 Las Vegas Raiders",
        "favorite": "Buffalo Bills",
        "margin": "4.1",
        "win_probability": "62%"
      }
    },
    {
      "slug": "dallas-cowboys-at-green-bay-packers",
      "kickoff": "2026-10-19T00:20:00Z",
      "home": {
        "slug": "green-bay-packers",
        "name": "Green Bay Packers",
        "rank": 12
      },
      "away": {
        "slug": "dallas-cowboys",
        "name": "Dallas Cowboys",
        "rank": 23
      },
      "neutral_site": false,
      "both_top_n": true,
      "expectation": {
        "home_margin": 5.3671,
        "favorite": "green-bay-packers",
        "margin": 5.3671,
        "win_probability": 0.6601,
        "home_win_probability": 0.6601,
        "neutral_favorite": "green-bay-packers",
        "neutral_margin": 3.6671
      },
      "display": {
        "day": "Sun, Oct. 18",
        "matchup": "No. 23 Dallas Cowboys at No. 12 Green Bay Packers",
        "favorite": "Green Bay Packers",
        "margin": "5.4",
        "win_probability": "66%"
      }
    },
    {
      "slug": "washington-commanders-at-san-francisco-49ers",
      "kickoff": "2026-10-20T00:15:00Z",
      "home": {
        "slug": "san-francisco-49ers",
        "name": "San Francisco 49ers",
        "rank": 2
      },
      "away": {
        "slug": "washington-commanders",
        "name": "Washington Commanders",
        "rank": 29
      },
      "neutral_site": false,
      "both_top_n": true,
      "expectation": {
        "home_margin": 10.5409,
        "favorite": "san-francisco-49ers",
        "margin": 10.5409,
        "win_probability": 0.7913,
        "home_win_probability": 0.7913,
        "neutral_favorite": "san-francisco-49ers",
        "neutral_margin": 8.8409
      },
      "display": {
        "day": "Mon, Oct. 19",
        "matchup": "No. 29 Washington Commanders at No. 2 San Francisco 49ers",
        "favorite": "San Francisco 49ers",
        "margin": "10.5",
        "win_probability": "79%"
      }
    }
  ],
  "movers": [
    "san-francisco-49ers",
    "seattle-seahawks",
    "green-bay-packers",
    "chicago-bears",
    "new-england-patriots",
    "las-vegas-raiders",
    "houston-texans",
    "tennessee-titans",
    "buffalo-bills",
    "los-angeles-rams",
    "detroit-lions",
    "philadelphia-eagles",
    "pittsburgh-steelers",
    "indianapolis-colts",
    "new-york-giants",
    "washington-commanders"
  ],
  "scorecard": {
    "scored": 15,
    "favorites_won": 10,
    "expected_wins": 8.5465,
    "mean_absolute_miss": 10.5584,
    "games": [
      {
        "slug": "tampa-bay-buccaneers-at-dallas-cowboys",
        "favorite": "dallas-cowboys",
        "margin": 1.5181,
        "win_probability": 0.5465,
        "final": {
          "home_score": 16,
          "away_score": 24
        },
        "favorite_won": false,
        "miss": -9.5181,
        "kickoff": "2026-10-09T00:15:00Z",
        "home": {
          "slug": "dallas-cowboys",
          "name": "Dallas Cowboys",
          "rank": 23
        },
        "away": {
          "slug": "tampa-bay-buccaneers",
          "name": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers",
          "rank": 21
        },
        "neutral_site": false,
        "decision": null,
        "display": {
          "day": "Thu, Oct. 8",
          "matchup": "No. 21 Tampa Bay Buccaneers at No. 23 Dallas Cowboys",
          "favorite": "Dallas Cowboys",
          "margin": "1.5",
          "win_probability": "55%",
          "final": "Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24–16",
          "outcome": "Upset: Tampa Bay Buccaneers won as a 45% underdog",
          "miss": "−9.5"
        }
      },
      {
        "slug": "philadelphia-eagles-vs-jacksonville-jaguars",
        "favorite": "jacksonville-jaguars",
        "margin": 6.5517,
        "win_probability": 0.6929,
        "final": {
          "home_score": 19,
          "away_score": 17
        },
        "favorite_won": true,
        "miss": -4.5517,
        "kickoff": "2026-10-11T13:30:00Z",
        "home": {
          "slug": "jacksonville-jaguars",
          "name": "Jacksonville Jaguars",
          "rank": 1
        },
        "away": {
          "slug": "philadelphia-eagles",
          "name": "Philadelphia Eagles",
          "rank": 19
        },
        "neutral_site": true,
        "decision": null,
        "display": {
          "day": "Sun, Oct. 11",
          "matchup": "No. 19 Philadelphia Eagles vs. No. 1 Jacksonville Jaguars (neutral site)",
          "favorite": "Jacksonville Jaguars",
          "margin": "6.6",
          "win_probability": "69%",
          "final": "Jacksonville Jaguars 19–17",
          "outcome": "Jacksonville Jaguars won by 2 points, 4.6 points less than expected",
          "miss": "−4.6"
        }
      },
      {
        "slug": "chicago-bears-at-green-bay-packers",
        "favorite": "chicago-bears",
        "margin": 2.6168,
        "win_probability": 0.5798,
        "final": {
          "home_score": 31,
          "away_score": 7
        },
        "favorite_won": false,
        "miss": -26.6168,
        "kickoff": "2026-10-11T17:00:00Z",
        "home": {
          "slug": "green-bay-packers",
          "name": "Green Bay Packers",
          "rank": 18
        },
        "away": {
          "slug": "chicago-bears",
          "name": "Chicago Bears",
          "rank": 6
        },
        "neutral_site": false,
        "decision": null,
        "display": {
          "day": "Sun, Oct. 11",
          "matchup": "No. 6 Chicago Bears at No. 18 Green Bay Packers",
          "favorite": "Chicago Bears",
          "margin": "2.6",
          "win_probability": "58%",
          "final": "Green Bay Packers 31–7",
          "outcome": "Upset: Green Bay Packers won as a 42% underdog",
          "miss": "−26.6"
        }
      },
      {
        "slug": "cincinnati-bengals-at-miami-dolphins",
        "favorite": "cincinnati-bengals",
        "margin": 1.957,
        "win_probability": 0.5598,
        "final": {
          "home_score": 24,
          "away_score": 31
        },
        "favorite_won": true,
        "miss": 5.043,
        "kickoff": "2026-10-11T17:00:00Z",
        "home": {
          "slug": "miami-dolphins",
          "name": "Miami Dolphins",
          "rank": 31
        },
        "away": {
          "slug": "cincinnati-bengals",
          "name": "Cincinnati Bengals",
          "rank": 17
        },
        "neutral_site": false,
        "decision": null,
        "display": {
          "day": "Sun, Oct. 11",
          "matchup": "No. 17 Cincinnati Bengals at No. 31 Miami Dolphins",
          "favorite": "Cincinnati Bengals",
          "margin": "2.0",
          "win_probability": "56%",
          "final": "Cincinnati Bengals 31–24",
          "outcome": "Cincinnati Bengals won by 7 points, 5.0 points more than expected",
          "miss": "+5.0"
        }
      },
      {
        "slug": "las-vegas-raiders-at-new-england-patriots",
        "favorite": "new-england-patriots",
        "margin": 4.8462,
        "win_probability": 0.6453,
        "final": {
          "home_score": 45,
          "away_score": 17
        },
        "favorite_won": true,
        "miss": 23.1538,
        "kickoff": "2026-10-11T17:00:00Z",
        "home": {
          "slug": "new-england-patriots",
          "name": "New England Patriots",
          "rank": 9
        },
        "away": {
          "slug": "las-vegas-raiders",
          "name": "Las Vegas Raiders",
          "rank": 22
        },
        "neutral_site": false,
        "decision": null,
        "display": {
          "day": "Sun, Oct. 11",
          "matchup": "No. 22 Las Vegas Raiders at No. 9 New England Patriots",
          "favorite": "New England Patriots",
          "margin": "4.8",
          "win_probability": "65%",
          "final": "New England Patriots 45–17",
          "outcome": "New England Patriots won by 28 points, 23.2 points more than expected",
          "miss": "+23.2"
        }
      },
      {
        "slug": "minnesota-vikings-at-new-orleans-saints",
        "favorite": "minnesota-vikings",
        "margin": 1.4691,
        "win_probability": 0.545,
        "final": {
          "home_score": 13,
          "away_score": 23
        },
        "favorite_won": true,
        "miss": 8.5309,
        "kickoff": "2026-10-11T17:00:00Z",
        "home": {
          "slug": "new-orleans-saints",
          "name": "New Orleans Saints",
          "rank": 26
        },
        "away": {
          "slug": "minnesota-vikings",
          "name": "Minnesota Vikings",
          "rank": 12
        },
        "neutral_site": false,
        "decision": null,
        "display": {
          "day": "Sun, Oct. 11",
          "matchup": "No. 12 Minnesota Vikings at No. 26 New Orleans Saints",
          "favorite": "Minnesota Vikings",
          "margin": "1.5",
          "win_probability": "54%",
          "final": "Minnesota Vikings 23–13",
          "outcome": "Minnesota Vikings won by 10 points, 8.5 points more than expected",
          "miss": "+8.5"
        }
      },
      {
        "slug": "cleveland-browns-at-new-york-jets",
        "favorite": "new-york-jets",
        "margin": 0.4854,
        "win_probability": 0.5149,
        "final": {
          "home_score": 17,
          "away_score": 12
        },
        "favorite_won": true,
        "miss": 4.5146,
        "kickoff": "2026-10-11T17:00:00Z",
        "home": {
          "slug": "new-york-jets",
          "name": "New York Jets",
          "rank": 30
        },
        "away": {
          "slug": "cleveland-browns",
          "name": "Cleveland Browns",
          "rank": 25
        },
        "neutral_site": false,
        "decision": null,
        "display": {
          "day": "Sun, Oct. 11",
          "matchup": "No. 25 Cleveland Browns at No. 30 New York Jets",
          "favorite": "New York Jets",
          "margin": "0.5",
          "win_probability": "51%",
          "final": "New York Jets 17–12",
          "outcome": "New York Jets won by 5 points, 4.5 points more than expected",
          "miss": "+4.5"
        }
      },
      {
        "slug": "indianapolis-colts-at-pittsburgh-steelers",
        "favorite": "pittsburgh-steelers",
        "margin": 0.2597,
        "win_probability": 0.508,
        "final": {
          "home_score": 34,
          "away_score": 22
        },
        "favorite_won": true,
        "miss": 11.7403,
        "kickoff": "2026-10-11T17:00:00Z",
        "home": {
          "slug": "pittsburgh-steelers",
          "name": "Pittsburgh Steelers",
          "rank": 24
        },
        "away": {
          "slug": "indianapolis-colts",
          "name": "Indianapolis Colts",
          "rank": 16
        },
        "neutral_site": false,
        "decision": null,
        "display": {
          "day": "Sun, Oct. 11",
          "matchup": "No. 16 Indianapolis Colts at No. 24 Pittsburgh Steelers",
          "favorite": "Pittsburgh Steelers",
          "margin": "0.3",
          "win_probability": "51%",
          "final": "Pittsburgh Steelers 34–22",
          "outcome": "Pittsburgh Steelers won by 12 points, 11.7 points more than expected",
          "miss": "+11.7"
        }
      },
      {
        "slug": "houston-texans-at-tennessee-titans",
        "favorite": "houston-texans",
        "margin": 4.6634,
        "win_probability": 0.6401,
        "final": {
          "home_score": 3,
          "away_score": 26
        },
        "favorite_won": true,
        "miss": 18.3366,
        "kickoff": "2026-10-11T17:00:00Z",
        "home": {
          "slug": "tennessee-titans",
          "name": "Tennessee Titans",
          "rank": 32
        },
        "away": {
          "slug": "houston-texans",
          "name": "Houston Texans",
          "rank": 11
        },
        "neutral_site": false,
        "decision": null,
        "display": {
          "day": "Sun, Oct. 11",
          "matchup": "No. 11 Houston Texans at No. 32 Tennessee Titans",
          "favorite": "Houston Texans",
          "margin": "4.7",
          "win_probability": "64%",
          "final": "Houston Texans 26–3",
          "outcome": "Houston Texans won by 23 points, 18.3 points more than expected",
          "miss": "+18.3"
        }
      },
      {
        "slug": "new-york-giants-at-washington-commanders",
        "favorite": "washington-commanders",
        "margin": 0.89,
        "win_probability": 0.5273,
        "final": {
          "home_score": 27,
          "away_score": 27
        },
        "favorite_won": false,
        "miss": -0.89,
        "kickoff": "2026-10-11T17:00:00Z",
        "home": {
          "slug": "washington-commanders",
          "name": "Washington Commanders",
          "rank": 29
        },
        "away": {
          "slug": "new-york-giants",
          "name": "New York Giants",
          "rank": 27
        },
        "neutral_site": false,
        "decision": null,
        "display": {
          "day": "Sun, Oct. 11",
          "matchup": "No. 27 New York Giants at No. 29 Washington Commanders",
          "favorite": "Washington Commanders",
          "margin": "0.9",
          "win_probability": "53%",
          "final": "Tie 27–27",
          "outcome": "Tie, with Washington Commanders favored at 53%",
          "miss": "−0.9"
        }
      },
      {
        "slug": "denver-broncos-at-los-angeles-chargers",
        "favorite": "denver-broncos",
        "margin": 1.2287,
        "win_probability": 0.5377,
        "final": {
          "home_score": 17,
          "away_score": 23
        },
        "favorite_won": true,
        "miss": 4.7713,
        "kickoff": "2026-10-11T20:05:00Z",
        "home": {
          "slug": "los-angeles-chargers",
          "name": "Los Angeles Chargers",
          "rank": 20
        },
        "away": {
          "slug": "denver-broncos",
          "name": "Denver Broncos",
          "rank": 10
        },
        "neutral_site": false,
        "decision": null,
        "display": {
          "day": "Sun, Oct. 11",
          "matchup": "No. 10 Denver Broncos at No. 20 Los Angeles Chargers",
          "favorite": "Denver Broncos",
          "margin": "1.2",
          "win_probability": "54%",
          "final": "Denver Broncos 23–17",
          "outcome": "Denver Broncos won by 6 points, 4.8 points more than expected",
          "miss": "+4.8"
        }
      },
      {
        "slug": "detroit-lions-at-arizona-cardinals",
        "favorite": "detroit-lions",
        "margin": 1.4043,
        "win_probability": 0.543,
        "final": {
          "home_score": 21,
          "away_score": 45
        },
        "favorite_won": true,
        "miss": 22.5957,
        "kickoff": "2026-10-11T20:25:00Z",
        "home": {
          "slug": "arizona-cardinals",
          "name": "Arizona Cardinals",
          "rank": 28
        },
        "away": {
          "slug": "detroit-lions",
          "name": "Detroit Lions",
          "rank": 13
        },
        "neutral_site": false,
        "decision": null,
        "display": {
          "day": "Sun, Oct. 11",
          "matchup": "No. 13 Detroit Lions at No. 28 Arizona Cardinals",
          "favorite": "Detroit Lions",
          "margin": "1.4",
          "win_probability": "54%",
          "final": "Detroit Lions 45–21",
          "outcome": "Detroit Lions won by 24 points, 22.6 points more than expected",
          "miss": "+22.6"
        }
      },
      {
        "slug": "san-francisco-49ers-at-seattle-seahawks",
        "favorite": "seattle-seahawks",
        "margin": 1.7175,
        "win_probability": 0.5526,
        "final": {
          "home_score": 29,
          "away_score": 32
        },
        "favorite_won": false,
        "miss": -4.7175,
        "kickoff": "2026-10-11T20:25:00Z",
        "home": {
          "slug": "seattle-seahawks",
          "name": "Seattle Seahawks",
          "rank": 3
        },
        "away": {
          "slug": "san-francisco-49ers",
          "name": "San Francisco 49ers",
          "rank": 4
        },
        "neutral_site": false,
        "decision": null,
        "display": {
          "day": "Sun, Oct. 11",
          "matchup": "No. 4 San Francisco 49ers at No. 3 Seattle Seahawks",
          "favorite": "Seattle Seahawks",
          "margin": "1.7",
          "win_probability": "55%",
          "final": "San Francisco 49ers 32–29",
          "outcome": "Upset: San Francisco 49ers won as a 45% underdog",
          "miss": "−4.7"
        }
      },
      {
        "slug": "baltimore-ravens-at-atlanta-falcons",
        "favorite": "baltimore-ravens",
        "margin": 0.8443,
        "win_probability": 0.5259,
        "final": {
          "home_score": 23,
          "away_score": 30
        },
        "favorite_won": true,
        "miss": 6.1557,
        "kickoff": "2026-10-12T00:20:00Z",
        "home": {
          "slug": "atlanta-falcons",
          "name": "Atlanta Falcons",
          "rank": 15
        },
        "away": {
          "slug": "baltimore-ravens",
          "name": "Baltimore Ravens",
          "rank": 7
        },
        "neutral_site": false,
        "decision": null,
        "display": {
          "day": "Sun, Oct. 11",
          "matchup": "No. 7 Baltimore Ravens at No. 15 Atlanta Falcons",
          "favorite": "Baltimore Ravens",
          "margin": "0.8",
          "win_probability": "53%",
          "final": "Baltimore Ravens 30–23",
          "outcome": "Baltimore Ravens won by 7 points, 6.2 points more than expected",
          "miss": "+6.2"
        }
      },
      {
        "slug": "buffalo-bills-at-los-angeles-rams",
        "favorite": "los-angeles-rams",
        "margin": 4.2406,
        "win_probability": 0.6279,
        "final": {
          "home_score": 34,
          "away_score": 37
        },
        "favorite_won": false,
        "miss": -7.2406,
        "kickoff": "2026-10-13T00:15:00Z",
        "home": {
          "slug": "los-angeles-rams",
          "name": "Los Angeles Rams",
          "rank": 2
        },
        "away": {
          "slug": "buffalo-bills",
          "name": "Buffalo Bills",
          "rank": 8
        },
        "neutral_site": false,
        "decision": null,
        "display": {
          "day": "Mon, Oct. 12",
          "matchup": "No. 8 Buffalo Bills at No. 2 Los Angeles Rams",
          "favorite": "Los Angeles Rams",
          "margin": "4.2",
          "win_probability": "63%",
          "final": "Buffalo Bills 37–34",
          "outcome": "Upset: Buffalo Bills won as a 37% underdog",
          "miss": "−7.2"
        }
      }
    ],
    "expectations_week": 5,
    "expectations_published": "2026-10-06",
    "biggest_upset": "buffalo-bills-at-los-angeles-rams",
    "display": {
      "favorites_won": "10 of 15",
      "expected_wins": "8.5",
      "mean_absolute_miss": "10.6",
      "margin_sd": "13.0",
      "biggest_upset": "Buffalo Bills over Los Angeles Rams, a 37% underdog"
    }
  }
}