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Verified forward forecast

Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees

d868008b-7297-4cd7-9e5a-4253ba5281ef

Forecast
Oct 6, 2026, 3:17 AM PDT
Locked
Oct 7, 2026, 5:00 PM PDT
Market
Moneyline · Away
Probability
35.7%
Eligibility
Eligible before lock
Lifecycle
Graded
Result
Win
Market basis
Market median · 11 books

Immutable evidence identity

This forecast remains attached to the exact model version that produced it. Later model changes cannot rewrite this record.

Strategy version ID
e76c9215-c89a-4dac-871b-91517353ff95
Definition hash
f23eeb90bbbb3cafbb79f481e4ab5a911236546f00ac732ba6627eb21479bace
Calculation version
strategy-engine-forward-v1
Lock rule
scheduled-start-v1
Forecast origin
Scheduled forward

Feature evidence

  • Feature
    bullpen
    Version
    mlb-pregame-v1
    Raw
    -10
    Transformed
    -10
    Weight
    0.05
    Contribution
    -0.5
    Availability
    Available
  • Feature
    location
    Version
    mlb-pregame-v1
    Raw
    -5
    Transformed
    -5
    Weight
    0.3
    Contribution
    -1.5
    Availability
    Available
  • Feature
    offense.power_diff
    Version
    mlb-offense-rates-v1
    Raw
    -0.0364528385275584
    Transformed
    -0.0364528385275584
    Weight
    0.05
    Contribution
    -0.0018226419263779202
    Availability
    Available
  • Feature
    pitcher
    Version
    mlb-pregame-v1
    Raw
    -1
    Transformed
    -1
    Weight
    0.25
    Contribution
    -0.25
    Availability
    Available
  • Feature
    runs
    Version
    mlb-pregame-v1
    Raw
    -0.568910198222479
    Transformed
    -0.568910198222479
    Weight
    0.15
    Contribution
    -0.08533652973337184
    Availability
    Available
  • Feature
    team_strength.pythagorean_diff
    Version
    mlb-pythagorean-v1
    Raw
    -0.039605904775839
    Transformed
    -0.039605904775839
    Weight
    0.2
    Contribution
    -0.0079211809551678
    Availability
    Available

Lifecycle history

  • Time
    Oct 8, 2026, 3:17 AM PDT
    Event
    Graded
    Reason
    Official result
    Result
    Win
    Scores
    4-3
    Correction
    —