Verified forward forecast
New York Mets @ Washington Nationals
d246754d-1bbe-4bb1-8845-3f5e3158881f
Forecast
Sep 26, 2026, 3:18 PM PDT
Locked
Sep 27, 2026, 10:05 AM PDT
Market
Moneyline · Home
Probability
61.0%
Eligibility
Eligible before lock
Lifecycle
Graded
Result
Win
Market basis
Market median · 6 books
Immutable evidence identity
This forecast remains attached to the exact model version that produced it. Later model changes cannot rewrite this record.
- Model version
- My Strategy 001 · Version 1
- Strategy version ID
- e76c9215-c89a-4dac-871b-91517353ff95
- Definition hash
- f23eeb90bbbb3cafbb79f481e4ab5a911236546f00ac732ba6627eb21479bace
- Calculation version
- strategy-engine-forward-v1
- Lock rule
- scheduled-start-v1
- Forecast origin
- Scheduled forward
Feature evidence
- Feature
- bullpen
- Version
- mlb-pregame-v1
- Raw
- -5.39463327872787
- Transformed
- -5.39463327872787
- Weight
- 0.05
- Contribution
- -0.26973166393639353
- Availability
- Available
- Feature
- location
- Version
- mlb-pregame-v1
- Raw
- 5
- Transformed
- 5
- Weight
- 0.3
- Contribution
- 1.5
- Availability
- Available
- Feature
- offense.power_diff
- Version
- mlb-offense-rates-v1
- Raw
- 0.0260355121406209
- Transformed
- 0.0260355121406209
- Weight
- 0.05
- Contribution
- 0.001301775607031045
- Availability
- Available
- Feature
- pitcher
- Version
- mlb-pregame-v1
- Raw
- -1
- Transformed
- -1
- Weight
- 0.25
- Contribution
- -0.25
- Availability
- Available
- Feature
- runs
- Version
- mlb-pregame-v1
- Raw
- 5.33347633429167
- Transformed
- 5.33347633429167
- Weight
- 0.15
- Contribution
- 0.8000214501437505
- Availability
- Available
- Feature
- team_strength.pythagorean_diff
- Version
- mlb-pythagorean-v1
- Raw
- 0.0260716338444423
- Transformed
- 0.0260716338444423
- Weight
- 0.2
- Contribution
- 0.005214326768888461
- Availability
- Available
Lifecycle history
- Time
- Sep 27, 2026, 3:17 PM PDT
- Event
- Graded
- Reason
- Official result
- Result
- Win
- Scores
- 4-6
- Correction
- —