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Verified forward forecast

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Detroit Tigers

2f65a9a8-be18-4b2a-8efa-5e5a63b281a0

Forecast
Sep 24, 2026, 3:18 PM PDT
Locked
Sep 25, 2026, 3:40 PM PDT
Market
Moneyline · Away
Probability
40.2%
Eligibility
Eligible before lock
Lifecycle
Graded
Result
Loss
Market basis
Market median · 8 books

Immutable evidence identity

This forecast remains attached to the exact model version that produced it. Later model changes cannot rewrite this record.

Strategy version ID
e76c9215-c89a-4dac-871b-91517353ff95
Definition hash
f23eeb90bbbb3cafbb79f481e4ab5a911236546f00ac732ba6627eb21479bace
Calculation version
strategy-engine-forward-v1
Lock rule
scheduled-start-v1
Forecast origin
Scheduled forward

Feature evidence

  • Feature
    bullpen
    Version
    mlb-pregame-v1
    Raw
    -1.47430808176235
    Transformed
    -1.47430808176235
    Weight
    0.05
    Contribution
    -0.0737154040881175
    Availability
    Available
  • Feature
    location
    Version
    mlb-pregame-v1
    Raw
    -5
    Transformed
    -5
    Weight
    0.3
    Contribution
    -1.5
    Availability
    Available
  • Feature
    offense.power_diff
    Version
    mlb-offense-rates-v1
    Raw
    -0.0102285667388204
    Transformed
    -0.0102285667388204
    Weight
    0.05
    Contribution
    -0.0005114283369410201
    Availability
    Available
  • Feature
    pitcher
    Version
    mlb-pregame-v1
    Raw
    -1
    Transformed
    -1
    Weight
    0.25
    Contribution
    -0.25
    Availability
    Available
  • Feature
    runs
    Version
    mlb-pregame-v1
    Raw
    1.63846335140231
    Transformed
    1.63846335140231
    Weight
    0.15
    Contribution
    0.24576950271034648
    Availability
    Available
  • Feature
    team_strength.pythagorean_diff
    Version
    mlb-pythagorean-v1
    Raw
    -0.0250168412586592
    Transformed
    -0.0250168412586592
    Weight
    0.2
    Contribution
    -0.0050033682517318405
    Availability
    Available

Lifecycle history

  • Time
    Sep 26, 2026, 3:17 AM PDT
    Event
    Graded
    Reason
    Official result
    Result
    Loss
    Scores
    7-8
    Correction
    —