Verified forward forecast
New York Mets @ Washington Nationals
4b5d17c2-dded-4c69-afc1-38014a06b68f
Forecast
Sep 26, 2026, 3:17 AM PDT
Locked
Sep 26, 2026, 9:35 AM PDT
Market
Moneyline · Home
Probability
54.8%
Eligibility
Eligible before lock
Lifecycle
Graded
Result
Loss
Market basis
Market median · 11 books
Immutable evidence identity
This forecast remains attached to the exact model version that produced it. Later model changes cannot rewrite this record.
- Model version
- MLB Win the Game 2 · Version 1
- Strategy version ID
- 1e4433e5-2916-4647-8dc7-b221f3c16f17
- Definition hash
- 9b6d82c9768b69602013f86c2bddd7445a39fc98d2c7cd008a521daeb8e97324
- Calculation version
- strategy-engine-forward-v1
- Lock rule
- scheduled-start-v1
- Forecast origin
- Scheduled forward
Feature evidence
- Feature
- bullpen
- Version
- mlb-pregame-v1
- Raw
- -6.30658242095982
- Transformed
- -6.30658242095982
- Weight
- 0.1
- Contribution
- -0.630658242095982
- Availability
- Available
- Feature
- location
- Version
- mlb-pregame-v1
- Raw
- 5
- Transformed
- 5
- Weight
- 0.2
- Contribution
- 1
- Availability
- Available
- Feature
- pitcher
- Version
- mlb-pregame-v1
- Raw
- 1
- Transformed
- 1
- Weight
- 0.4
- Contribution
- 0.4
- Availability
- Available
- Feature
- record
- Version
- mlb-pregame-v1
- Raw
- -0.0529671021432797
- Transformed
- -0.0529671021432797
- Weight
- 0.1
- Contribution
- -0.005296710214327971
- Availability
- Available
- Feature
- team_strength.pythagorean_diff
- Version
- mlb-pythagorean-v1
- Raw
- 0.0336451515267708
- Transformed
- 0.0336451515267708
- Weight
- 0.2
- Contribution
- 0.00672903030535416
- Availability
- Available
Lifecycle history
- Time
- Sep 26, 2026, 3:17 PM PDT
- Event
- Graded
- Reason
- Official result
- Result
- Loss
- Scores
- 7-1
- Correction
- —